Polymarket traders price an 81% implied probability on "No" for Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—5.8% of GDP, up slightly from FY2025's $1.8 trillion—and year-to-date FY2026 outlays already exceeding $1.17 trillion. President Trump's FY2027 budget proposal, released April 3, drives this sentiment with a 42% defense spending surge to $1.5 trillion partially offset by 10% non-defense discretionary cuts, yet projecting deficits near $2.2 trillion amid tax cut extensions and entitlement growth. Upcoming FY2026 year-end data and midterm elections loom as catalysts, with baseline forecasts showing deficits averaging 6.1% of GDP over the decade.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price an 81% implied probability on "No" for Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—5.8% of GDP, up slightly from FY2025's $1.8 trillion—and year-to-date FY2026 outlays already exceeding $1.17 trillion. President Trump's FY2027 budget proposal, released April 3, drives this sentiment with a 42% defense spending surge to $1.5 trillion partially offset by 10% non-defense discretionary cuts, yet projecting deficits near $2.2 trillion amid tax cut extensions and entitlement growth. Upcoming FY2026 year-end data and midterm elections loom as catalysts, with baseline forecasts showing deficits averaging 6.1% of GDP over the decade.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$548Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price an 81% implied probability on "No" for Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—5.8% of GDP, up slightly from FY2025's $1.8 trillion—and year-to-date FY2026 outlays already exceeding $1.17 trillion. President Trump's FY2027 budget proposal, released April 3, drives this sentiment with a 42% defense spending surge to $1.5 trillion partially offset by 10% non-defense discretionary cuts, yet projecting deficits near $2.2 trillion amid tax cut extensions and entitlement growth. Upcoming FY2026 year-end data and midterm elections loom as catalysts, with baseline forecasts showing deficits averaging 6.1% of GDP over the decade.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$548Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price an 81% implied probability on "No" for Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, reflecting Congressional Budget Office projections of a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—5.8% of GDP, up slightly from FY2025's $1.8 trillion—and year-to-date FY2026 outlays already exceeding $1.17 trillion. President Trump's FY2027 budget proposal, released April 3, drives this sentiment with a 42% defense spending surge to $1.5 trillion partially offset by 10% non-defense discretionary cuts, yet projecting deficits near $2.2 trillion amid tax cut extensions and entitlement growth. Upcoming FY2026 year-end data and midterm elections loom as catalysts, with baseline forecasts showing deficits averaging 6.1% of GDP over the decade.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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