Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 5?
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$86,048 Vol.
$86,048 Vol.
5 mag 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$86,048 Vol.
$86,048 Vol.
5 mag 2026
10°C or below
$2,311 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,016 Vol.
No
12°C
$3,903 Vol.
No
13°C
$4,444 Vol.
No
14°C
$17,819 Vol.
No
15°C
$11,839 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$9,105 Vol.
No
17°C
$12,910 Vol.
No
18°C
$11,490 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,214 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$6,998 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$86,048Data di fine
5 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$86,048Data di fine
5 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C in Istanbul on May 5, driven by official observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports, which confirm a midday peak of 15°C amid morning lows near 12°C and limited diurnal warming. Persistent northerly winds and cloudy conditions from a cold air mass originating over the Balkans have suppressed temperatures well below the typical May average of 20°C, with hourly readings showing steady decline to 14°C by late afternoon. Scenarios challenging this include a rare late-evening measurement revision from peripheral MGM stations or unforecasted clear skies enabling minor reheating, though model consensus and current trends indicate resolution to 15°C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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