Latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models show Shanghai's July 21 minimum temperature most likely settling near 27–28 °C, reflecting a typical summer nocturnal inversion under subtropical high pressure with light southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because current guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models (ECMWF, GFS) converges on minimal day-to-day variability, while urban heat-island effects and recent above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea sustain elevated baseline readings. The modest probabilities assigned to 25 °C or lower hinge on any unexpected northerly surge or increased cloud cover that could enhance cooling, whereas warmer outliers remain possible if the ridge strengthens. Updated model runs and official 48-hour forecasts over the next day will be the key catalysts likely to refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 21 luglio?
La temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 21 luglio?
25°C 100.0%
22°C o inferiore <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$40,693 Vol.
$40,693 Vol.
21 lug 2026
22°C o inferiore
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Sì
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C o superiore
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C o inferiore <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$40,693 Vol.
$40,693 Vol.
21 lug 2026
22°C o inferiore
$5,304 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,662 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,137 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,828 Vol.
Sì
26°C
$5,485 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,771 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,430 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,785 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,234 Vol.
No
31°C
$690 Vol.
No
32°C o superiore
$367 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models show Shanghai's July 21 minimum temperature most likely settling near 27–28 °C, reflecting a typical summer nocturnal inversion under subtropical high pressure with light southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because current guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models (ECMWF, GFS) converges on minimal day-to-day variability, while urban heat-island effects and recent above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea sustain elevated baseline readings. The modest probabilities assigned to 25 °C or lower hinge on any unexpected northerly surge or increased cloud cover that could enhance cooling, whereas warmer outliers remain possible if the ridge strengthens. Updated model runs and official 48-hour forecasts over the next day will be the key catalysts likely to refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$40,693Data di fine
21 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models show Shanghai's July 21 minimum temperature most likely settling near 27–28 °C, reflecting a typical summer nocturnal inversion under subtropical high pressure with light southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because current guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models (ECMWF, GFS) converges on minimal day-to-day variability, while urban heat-island effects and recent above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea sustain elevated baseline readings. The modest probabilities assigned to 25 °C or lower hinge on any unexpected northerly surge or increased cloud cover that could enhance cooling, whereas warmer outliers remain possible if the ridge strengthens. Updated model runs and official 48-hour forecasts over the next day will be the key catalysts likely to refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40,693Data di fine
21 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Latest ensemble forecasts from regional meteorological models show Shanghai's July 21 minimum temperature most likely settling near 27–28 °C, reflecting a typical summer nocturnal inversion under subtropical high pressure with light southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because current guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models (ECMWF, GFS) converges on minimal day-to-day variability, while urban heat-island effects and recent above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea sustain elevated baseline readings. The modest probabilities assigned to 25 °C or lower hinge on any unexpected northerly surge or increased cloud cover that could enhance cooling, whereas warmer outliers remain possible if the ridge strengthens. Updated model runs and official 48-hour forecasts over the next day will be the key catalysts likely to refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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