Current short-range forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models place Mexico City’s August 12 maximum near 24–26 °C, driving the tight market clustering around 25 °C (41 %) and 26 °C (34.5 %). At the city’s 2,240 m elevation, daytime heating is moderated by typical monsoon-season moisture, with afternoon convection and scattered showers expected to reduce solar insolation and cap peaks. Model differences in the timing, coverage, and intensity of these storms—plus minor variations in boundary-layer humidity and wind—create the narrow spread separating 24 °C from 26 °C outcomes. Clearer skies or delayed rainfall could briefly push readings higher, while earlier or heavier precipitation would favor the lower end of the range.