Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Moscow's August 31 maximum will likely fall in the 22–24°C range, consistent with the market's concentration around those outcomes amid transitional late-summer conditions. Southwest flow advects mild air while variable cloud cover and possible light showers limit daytime heating, keeping peaks below recent seasonal highs. Model spread arises from differences in predicted cloud thickness, timing of any precipitation, and boundary-layer mixing, all of which can shift the daily maximum by 1–3°C. Russian meteorological guidance and international ensembles currently align near 23°C but remain sensitive to the next 48-hour updates from the Hydrometeorological Center and global numerical weather prediction runs. Traders appear to price in this genuine short-term uncertainty rather than committing heavily to outliers.