Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional models indicate a high near 28°C in Tokyo on August 3, driven by increased cloud cover and a transient cooler air mass that tempers typical midsummer heating. This aligns with observed trends following July's extreme heat episodes, where highs frequently exceeded 35–38°C regionally. Seasonal baselines show August averages of 30–32°C, yet the near-term outlook emphasizes reduced insolation and possible showers that limit daytime maxima. Traders assign highest implied probabilities to 27–28°C outcomes, reflecting consensus on these moderating factors while noting model uncertainty in steering patterns and humidity levels that could shift results by 1–2°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 3 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 3 agosto?
27°C 38%
28°C 27%
26°C 20%
29°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 ago 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
20%
27°C
38%
28°C
27%
29°C
12%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
2%
27°C 38%
28°C 27%
26°C 20%
29°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 ago 2026
22°C or below
$195 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$200 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$545 Vol.
2%
25°C
$37 Vol.
6%
26°C
$57 Vol.
20%
27°C
$524 Vol.
38%
28°C
$27 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
12%
30°C
$2 Vol.
4%
31°C
$10 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$20 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional models indicate a high near 28°C in Tokyo on August 3, driven by increased cloud cover and a transient cooler air mass that tempers typical midsummer heating. This aligns with observed trends following July's extreme heat episodes, where highs frequently exceeded 35–38°C regionally. Seasonal baselines show August averages of 30–32°C, yet the near-term outlook emphasizes reduced insolation and possible showers that limit daytime maxima. Traders assign highest implied probabilities to 27–28°C outcomes, reflecting consensus on these moderating factors while noting model uncertainty in steering patterns and humidity levels that could shift results by 1–2°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,617Data di fine
3 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional models indicate a high near 28°C in Tokyo on August 3, driven by increased cloud cover and a transient cooler air mass that tempers typical midsummer heating. This aligns with observed trends following July's extreme heat episodes, where highs frequently exceeded 35–38°C regionally. Seasonal baselines show August averages of 30–32°C, yet the near-term outlook emphasizes reduced insolation and possible showers that limit daytime maxima. Traders assign highest implied probabilities to 27–28°C outcomes, reflecting consensus on these moderating factors while noting model uncertainty in steering patterns and humidity levels that could shift results by 1–2°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,617Data di fine
3 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional models indicate a high near 28°C in Tokyo on August 3, driven by increased cloud cover and a transient cooler air mass that tempers typical midsummer heating. This aligns with observed trends following July's extreme heat episodes, where highs frequently exceeded 35–38°C regionally. Seasonal baselines show August averages of 30–32°C, yet the near-term outlook emphasizes reduced insolation and possible showers that limit daytime maxima. Traders assign highest implied probabilities to 27–28°C outcomes, reflecting consensus on these moderating factors while noting model uncertainty in steering patterns and humidity levels that could shift results by 1–2°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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