Market-implied odds cluster around 24–26°C for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on August 3, reflecting climatological norms where early-August overnight lows average near 26°C amid subtropical humidity and frequent showers. Seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal to above-normal temperatures through August–October 2026, consistent with long-term warming trends and ENSO-neutral conditions that limit extreme cooling. Short-term variability from cloud cover, rainfall, and urban heat-island effects introduces uncertainty, while official multi-model forecasts show minimal deviation from historical baselines. Traders weigh these factors against the narrow 1–2°C resolution thresholds, with any unexpected clear skies or stronger monsoon flow potentially shifting the minimum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 3 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 3 agosto?
26°C 36%
25°C 32%
24°C 20%
28°C 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 ago 2026
21°C o inferiore
<1%
22°C
6%
23°C
8%
24°C
20%
25°C
32%
26°C
22%
27°C
13%
28°C
14%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C o più
<1%
26°C 36%
25°C 32%
24°C 20%
28°C 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 ago 2026
21°C o inferiore
$74 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$40 Vol.
6%
23°C
$21 Vol.
8%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$0 Vol.
32%
26°C
$14 Vol.
22%
27°C
$30 Vol.
13%
28°C
$285 Vol.
14%
29°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
31°C o più
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds cluster around 24–26°C for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on August 3, reflecting climatological norms where early-August overnight lows average near 26°C amid subtropical humidity and frequent showers. Seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal to above-normal temperatures through August–October 2026, consistent with long-term warming trends and ENSO-neutral conditions that limit extreme cooling. Short-term variability from cloud cover, rainfall, and urban heat-island effects introduces uncertainty, while official multi-model forecasts show minimal deviation from historical baselines. Traders weigh these factors against the narrow 1–2°C resolution thresholds, with any unexpected clear skies or stronger monsoon flow potentially shifting the minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$542Data di fine
3 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds cluster around 24–26°C for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on August 3, reflecting climatological norms where early-August overnight lows average near 26°C amid subtropical humidity and frequent showers. Seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal to above-normal temperatures through August–October 2026, consistent with long-term warming trends and ENSO-neutral conditions that limit extreme cooling. Short-term variability from cloud cover, rainfall, and urban heat-island effects introduces uncertainty, while official multi-model forecasts show minimal deviation from historical baselines. Traders weigh these factors against the narrow 1–2°C resolution thresholds, with any unexpected clear skies or stronger monsoon flow potentially shifting the minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$542Data di fine
3 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds cluster around 24–26°C for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on August 3, reflecting climatological norms where early-August overnight lows average near 26°C amid subtropical humidity and frequent showers. Seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate normal to above-normal temperatures through August–October 2026, consistent with long-term warming trends and ENSO-neutral conditions that limit extreme cooling. Short-term variability from cloud cover, rainfall, and urban heat-island effects introduces uncertainty, while official multi-model forecasts show minimal deviation from historical baselines. Traders weigh these factors against the narrow 1–2°C resolution thresholds, with any unexpected clear skies or stronger monsoon flow potentially shifting the minimum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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