Trader sentiment on Earth's shape reflects the overwhelming scientific consensus, supported by satellite imagery, gravitational physics, and centuries of navigational data that confirm a spherical planet. This 97.4% implied probability for "No" arises from the complete lack of credible evidence for flat Earth ideas, which persist only as fringe cultural memes without traction in mainstream discourse or institutions. No recent developments—such as new observations or high-profile claims—have shifted the established narrative. Realistic upset scenarios remain highly improbable, though an extreme reinterpretation of the market question or unprecedented hoax could theoretically intervene before resolution.