Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 8°C as the lowest temperature in London on May 6, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast for Greater London confirming an overnight minimum of 8°C amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds around 6–8 mph. This aligns with hourly projections showing temperatures bottoming out near 9°C early evening before stabilizing at 8°C, bolstered by the urban heat island effect and sufficient cloud cover to curb radiative cooling—conditions validated by current observations of 11–12°C in the evening. Model consensus from UKV and ECMWF supports this, with morning lows already exceeding 7°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing leading to a brief dip toward 7°C under ideal inversion conditions, though persistent breeze and humidity above 70% render it highly unlikely; final Heathrow Airport data will resolve the market by midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Londra il 6 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa di Londra il 6 maggio?
8°C 100.0%
3°C o inferiore <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
$28,967 Vol.
$28,967 Vol.
6 mag 2026
3°C o inferiore
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
Sì
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C o superiore
No
8°C 100.0%
3°C o inferiore <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
$28,967 Vol.
$28,967 Vol.
6 mag 2026
3°C o inferiore
$4,168 Vol.
No
4°C
$3,995 Vol.
No
5°C
$911 Vol.
No
6°C
$2,667 Vol.
No
7°C
$3,334 Vol.
No
8°C
$4,272 Vol.
Sì
9°C
$1,052 Vol.
No
10°C
$1,598 Vol.
No
11°C
$3,136 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,697 Vol.
No
13°C o superiore
$2,136 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 8°C as the lowest temperature in London on May 6, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast for Greater London confirming an overnight minimum of 8°C amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds around 6–8 mph. This aligns with hourly projections showing temperatures bottoming out near 9°C early evening before stabilizing at 8°C, bolstered by the urban heat island effect and sufficient cloud cover to curb radiative cooling—conditions validated by current observations of 11–12°C in the evening. Model consensus from UKV and ECMWF supports this, with morning lows already exceeding 7°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing leading to a brief dip toward 7°C under ideal inversion conditions, though persistent breeze and humidity above 70% render it highly unlikely; final Heathrow Airport data will resolve the market by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$28,967Data di fine
6 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 8°C as the lowest temperature in London on May 6, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast for Greater London confirming an overnight minimum of 8°C amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds around 6–8 mph. This aligns with hourly projections showing temperatures bottoming out near 9°C early evening before stabilizing at 8°C, bolstered by the urban heat island effect and sufficient cloud cover to curb radiative cooling—conditions validated by current observations of 11–12°C in the evening. Model consensus from UKV and ECMWF supports this, with morning lows already exceeding 7°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing leading to a brief dip toward 7°C under ideal inversion conditions, though persistent breeze and humidity above 70% render it highly unlikely; final Heathrow Airport data will resolve the market by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,967Data di fine
6 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 8°C as the lowest temperature in London on May 6, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast for Greater London confirming an overnight minimum of 8°C amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds around 6–8 mph. This aligns with hourly projections showing temperatures bottoming out near 9°C early evening before stabilizing at 8°C, bolstered by the urban heat island effect and sufficient cloud cover to curb radiative cooling—conditions validated by current observations of 11–12°C in the evening. Model consensus from UKV and ECMWF supports this, with morning lows already exceeding 7°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing leading to a brief dip toward 7°C under ideal inversion conditions, though persistent breeze and humidity above 70% render it highly unlikely; final Heathrow Airport data will resolve the market by midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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