Current forecasts from models and agencies like the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate persistent warm, humid conditions over Incheon with extensive cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms expected through August 28, trapping heat and limiting overnight radiative cooling. This supports market-implied odds favoring a minimum of 24–26°C, above the long-term average low near 22°C, as high dew points near 24–25°C and light easterly winds reduce temperature drops. Key uncertainties differentiating the closely matched 24°C, 25°C, and 26°C outcomes include the timing and intensity of any rain bands, which could raise minima by 1–2°C through insulation, versus brief clear intervals allowing modest cooling. Updated model runs ahead of the date will likely refine these probabilities.