Trader consensus favors "No" at 80% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater anywhere worldwide by June 30—reflecting United States Geological Survey (USGS) data showing no such events in 2026 thus far, with the largest recent quake a 7.4 magnitude off Indonesia on April 1 at a subduction zone interface. This aligns with global historical averages of roughly one M8.0+ event per year, leaving about a 20% chance over the next 75 days amid routine seismic activity and no foreshock swarms or anomalous strain on major faults like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Recent M7.3–7.5 quakes in Vanuatu and Tonga produced typical aftershocks without escalation, per USGS monitoring. Ongoing real-time catalogs and forecast updates will track any shifts in high-risk regions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$45,191 Vol.
$45,191 Vol.
30 giu 2026
$45,191 Vol.
$45,191 Vol.
30 giu 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 80% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater anywhere worldwide by June 30—reflecting United States Geological Survey (USGS) data showing no such events in 2026 thus far, with the largest recent quake a 7.4 magnitude off Indonesia on April 1 at a subduction zone interface. This aligns with global historical averages of roughly one M8.0+ event per year, leaving about a 20% chance over the next 75 days amid routine seismic activity and no foreshock swarms or anomalous strain on major faults like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Recent M7.3–7.5 quakes in Vanuatu and Tonga produced typical aftershocks without escalation, per USGS monitoring. Ongoing real-time catalogs and forecast updates will track any shifts in high-risk regions.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$45,191Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 80% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater anywhere worldwide by June 30—reflecting United States Geological Survey (USGS) data showing no such events in 2026 thus far, with the largest recent quake a 7.4 magnitude off Indonesia on April 1 at a subduction zone interface. This aligns with global historical averages of roughly one M8.0+ event per year, leaving about a 20% chance over the next 75 days amid routine seismic activity and no foreshock swarms or anomalous strain on major faults like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Recent M7.3–7.5 quakes in Vanuatu and Tonga produced typical aftershocks without escalation, per USGS monitoring. Ongoing real-time catalogs and forecast updates will track any shifts in high-risk regions.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$45,191Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 80% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater anywhere worldwide by June 30—reflecting United States Geological Survey (USGS) data showing no such events in 2026 thus far, with the largest recent quake a 7.4 magnitude off Indonesia on April 1 at a subduction zone interface. This aligns with global historical averages of roughly one M8.0+ event per year, leaving about a 20% chance over the next 75 days amid routine seismic activity and no foreshock swarms or anomalous strain on major faults like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Recent M7.3–7.5 quakes in Vanuatu and Tonga produced typical aftershocks without escalation, per USGS monitoring. Ongoing real-time catalogs and forecast updates will track any shifts in high-risk regions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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