Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 topping independent benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in early September 2026, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4.1-Flash have narrowed the capability gap through efficient mixture-of-experts designs and open-weight releases, pressuring cost and performance metrics. These dynamics, plus Google’s platform integrations and Moonshot’s value positioning, underpin the tight trader consensus around Google and Moonshot at 26% implied probability for third place, while lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and others reflect the fluid ranking environment ahead of November resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTerzo miglior AI Lab a fine novembre?
Terzo miglior AI Lab a fine novembre?
Google 27%
MiniMax 25%
OpenAI 24%
Thinky 18%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
27%
MiniMax
25%
OpenAI
24%
Thinky
18%
Baidu
17%
SpaceXAI
15%
Nvidia
15%
Meta
14%
Amazon
14%
ByteDance
14%
Tencent
14%
Xiaomi
14%
Anthropic
14%
Moonshot
13%
Z.ai
13%
DeepSeek
13%
StepFun
13%
Microsoft
12%
Alibaba
12%
Meituan
11%
Mistral
8%
Google 27%
MiniMax 25%
OpenAI 24%
Thinky 18%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 nov 2026
$0 Vol.
27%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
25%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
24%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
18%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
17%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
15%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
15%
Meta
$0 Vol.
14%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
14%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
13%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
13%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
13%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
12%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
12%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
11%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 topping independent benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in early September 2026, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4.1-Flash have narrowed the capability gap through efficient mixture-of-experts designs and open-weight releases, pressuring cost and performance metrics. These dynamics, plus Google’s platform integrations and Moonshot’s value positioning, underpin the tight trader consensus around Google and Moonshot at 26% implied probability for third place, while lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and others reflect the fluid ranking environment ahead of November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 topping independent benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in early September 2026, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4.1-Flash have narrowed the capability gap through efficient mixture-of-experts designs and open-weight releases, pressuring cost and performance metrics. These dynamics, plus Google’s platform integrations and Moonshot’s value positioning, underpin the tight trader consensus around Google and Moonshot at 26% implied probability for third place, while lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and others reflect the fluid ranking environment ahead of November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 topping independent benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in early September 2026, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4.1-Flash have narrowed the capability gap through efficient mixture-of-experts designs and open-weight releases, pressuring cost and performance metrics. These dynamics, plus Google’s platform integrations and Moonshot’s value positioning, underpin the tight trader consensus around Google and Moonshot at 26% implied probability for third place, while lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and others reflect the fluid ranking environment ahead of November resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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