Trader consensus prices the US trade deficit for 2026 around $800–900 billion at 32% and $900 billion–$1 trillion at 23%, reflecting mixed early-year results from the Trump administration's aggressive tariff regime and reciprocal trade agreements. February's goods and services deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion amid rebounding imports offsetting record exports, yet the 12-month rolling total through February fell to $776 billion—down 24% in goods from the prior year—signaling partial tariff impacts alongside services surpluses and energy exports. This keeps the race tight due to volatile monthly swings, persistent consumer demand, a strong dollar, and AI-driven tech imports; separation could arise from March data (due early May), escalated tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China, new bilateral deals like the recent US-India framework, Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the dollar, or economic slowdown curbing import growth.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$19,128 Vol.
$19,128 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
8%
500–600 miliardi
3%
600–700 miliardi
7%
700–800 miliardi
13%
800–900 miliardi
32%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
21%
1T–1,1T
12%
1,1T+
8%
$19,128 Vol.
$19,128 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
$16,427 Vol.
8%
500–600 miliardi
$225 Vol.
3%
600–700 miliardi
$244 Vol.
7%
700–800 miliardi
$289 Vol.
13%
800–900 miliardi
$482 Vol.
32%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
$765 Vol.
21%
1T–1,1T
$239 Vol.
12%
1,1T+
$457 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus prices the US trade deficit for 2026 around $800–900 billion at 32% and $900 billion–$1 trillion at 23%, reflecting mixed early-year results from the Trump administration's aggressive tariff regime and reciprocal trade agreements. February's goods and services deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion amid rebounding imports offsetting record exports, yet the 12-month rolling total through February fell to $776 billion—down 24% in goods from the prior year—signaling partial tariff impacts alongside services surpluses and energy exports. This keeps the race tight due to volatile monthly swings, persistent consumer demand, a strong dollar, and AI-driven tech imports; separation could arise from March data (due early May), escalated tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China, new bilateral deals like the recent US-India framework, Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the dollar, or economic slowdown curbing import growth.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$19,128Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus prices the US trade deficit for 2026 around $800–900 billion at 32% and $900 billion–$1 trillion at 23%, reflecting mixed early-year results from the Trump administration's aggressive tariff regime and reciprocal trade agreements. February's goods and services deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion amid rebounding imports offsetting record exports, yet the 12-month rolling total through February fell to $776 billion—down 24% in goods from the prior year—signaling partial tariff impacts alongside services surpluses and energy exports. This keeps the race tight due to volatile monthly swings, persistent consumer demand, a strong dollar, and AI-driven tech imports; separation could arise from March data (due early May), escalated tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China, new bilateral deals like the recent US-India framework, Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the dollar, or economic slowdown curbing import growth.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$19,128Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices the US trade deficit for 2026 around $800–900 billion at 32% and $900 billion–$1 trillion at 23%, reflecting mixed early-year results from the Trump administration's aggressive tariff regime and reciprocal trade agreements. February's goods and services deficit widened modestly to $57.3 billion amid rebounding imports offsetting record exports, yet the 12-month rolling total through February fell to $776 billion—down 24% in goods from the prior year—signaling partial tariff impacts alongside services surpluses and energy exports. This keeps the race tight due to volatile monthly swings, persistent consumer demand, a strong dollar, and AI-driven tech imports; separation could arise from March data (due early May), escalated tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China, new bilateral deals like the recent US-India framework, Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the dollar, or economic slowdown curbing import growth.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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