Recent tariff measures implemented since early 2025 have reduced U.S. goods imports more sharply than exports through the first quarter of 2026, narrowing the monthly goods and services deficit to levels around $55-60 billion. This follows a 2025 annual total of roughly $900 billion that remained largely stable despite policy shifts, as businesses adjusted to higher duties on a range of imports. CBO projections and private forecasts highlight slower import growth in 2026 amid ongoing trade policy effects, dollar dynamics, and domestic supply responses, while export expansion faces headwinds from foreign countermeasures. These developments underpin trader consensus around the 800-900 billion band as the most probable outcome for the full calendar year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$21,139 Vol.
$21,139 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
5%
500–600 miliardi
6%
600–700 miliardi
11%
700–800 miliardi
8%
800–900 miliardi
42%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
29%
1T–1,1T
4%
1,1T+
4%
$21,139 Vol.
$21,139 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
$16,691 Vol.
5%
500–600 miliardi
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700 miliardi
$505 Vol.
11%
700–800 miliardi
$456 Vol.
8%
800–900 miliardi
$1,008 Vol.
42%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
$984 Vol.
29%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
4%
1,1T+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff measures implemented since early 2025 have reduced U.S. goods imports more sharply than exports through the first quarter of 2026, narrowing the monthly goods and services deficit to levels around $55-60 billion. This follows a 2025 annual total of roughly $900 billion that remained largely stable despite policy shifts, as businesses adjusted to higher duties on a range of imports. CBO projections and private forecasts highlight slower import growth in 2026 amid ongoing trade policy effects, dollar dynamics, and domestic supply responses, while export expansion faces headwinds from foreign countermeasures. These developments underpin trader consensus around the 800-900 billion band as the most probable outcome for the full calendar year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,139Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff measures implemented since early 2025 have reduced U.S. goods imports more sharply than exports through the first quarter of 2026, narrowing the monthly goods and services deficit to levels around $55-60 billion. This follows a 2025 annual total of roughly $900 billion that remained largely stable despite policy shifts, as businesses adjusted to higher duties on a range of imports. CBO projections and private forecasts highlight slower import growth in 2026 amid ongoing trade policy effects, dollar dynamics, and domestic supply responses, while export expansion faces headwinds from foreign countermeasures. These developments underpin trader consensus around the 800-900 billion band as the most probable outcome for the full calendar year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,139Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent tariff measures implemented since early 2025 have reduced U.S. goods imports more sharply than exports through the first quarter of 2026, narrowing the monthly goods and services deficit to levels around $55-60 billion. This follows a 2025 annual total of roughly $900 billion that remained largely stable despite policy shifts, as businesses adjusted to higher duties on a range of imports. CBO projections and private forecasts highlight slower import growth in 2026 amid ongoing trade policy effects, dollar dynamics, and domestic supply responses, while export expansion faces headwinds from foreign countermeasures. These developments underpin trader consensus around the 800-900 billion band as the most probable outcome for the full calendar year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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