Tim Cook’s planned transition from Apple CEO to executive chairman in September 2026 anchors trader consensus near 100% implied probability for his departure before year-end, reflecting an official succession timeline amid slowing iPhone growth and AI hardware priorities. Sam Altman faces roughly 9% odds amid OpenAI’s wave of more than a dozen senior exits in 2026, repeated reorganizations, and IPO preparations that have triggered internal upheaval without displacing him. Sundar Pichai sits near 8–10% as Google loses top AI talent to startups while Alphabet restructures DeepMind leadership. Similar low-single-digit probabilities apply to Andy Jassy, Brian Armstrong, and Dan Clancy, shaped by investor pressure for faster AI execution and historical patterns of CEO turnover at mature tech firms. Key near-term catalysts include Apple’s September leadership handoff and any OpenAI board or funding developments before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$711,640 Vol.

Sam Altman - OpenAI
9%

Andy Jassy - Amazon
7%

Sundar Pichai - Google
7%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
5%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
4%
$711,640 Vol.

Sam Altman - OpenAI
9%

Andy Jassy - Amazon
7%

Sundar Pichai - Google
7%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
5%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
4%
An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 18, 2025, 10:41 AM ET
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Tim Cook’s planned transition from Apple CEO to executive chairman in September 2026 anchors trader consensus near 100% implied probability for his departure before year-end, reflecting an official succession timeline amid slowing iPhone growth and AI hardware priorities. Sam Altman faces roughly 9% odds amid OpenAI’s wave of more than a dozen senior exits in 2026, repeated reorganizations, and IPO preparations that have triggered internal upheaval without displacing him. Sundar Pichai sits near 8–10% as Google loses top AI talent to startups while Alphabet restructures DeepMind leadership. Similar low-single-digit probabilities apply to Andy Jassy, Brian Armstrong, and Dan Clancy, shaped by investor pressure for faster AI execution and historical patterns of CEO turnover at mature tech firms. Key near-term catalysts include Apple’s September leadership handoff and any OpenAI board or funding developments before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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