Recent federal actions by the Department of Justice have driven near-certain trader consensus on this outcome. On May 15, prosecutors unsealed charges against an Iraqi national described as a senior operative for Kata’ib Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, alleging involvement in directing multiple attacks targeting U.S. citizens, Jewish sites, and interests in retaliation for regional conflicts. This indictment falls squarely within the market’s timeframe and aligns with ongoing counterterrorism and sanctions enforcement against Iranian networks. While the current 99.8 percent implied probability reflects broad agreement that resolution criteria have been met, traders still monitor potential late-stage developments such as procedural delays, evidentiary challenges, or new diplomatic constraints that could affect final confirmation before the May 31 deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
$18,274 Vol.
$18,274 Vol.
31 mag 2026
$18,274 Vol.
$18,274 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent federal actions by the Department of Justice have driven near-certain trader consensus on this outcome. On May 15, prosecutors unsealed charges against an Iraqi national described as a senior operative for Kata’ib Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, alleging involvement in directing multiple attacks targeting U.S. citizens, Jewish sites, and interests in retaliation for regional conflicts. This indictment falls squarely within the market’s timeframe and aligns with ongoing counterterrorism and sanctions enforcement against Iranian networks. While the current 99.8 percent implied probability reflects broad agreement that resolution criteria have been met, traders still monitor potential late-stage developments such as procedural delays, evidentiary challenges, or new diplomatic constraints that could affect final confirmation before the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Volume
$18,274Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent federal actions by the Department of Justice have driven near-certain trader consensus on this outcome. On May 15, prosecutors unsealed charges against an Iraqi national described as a senior operative for Kata’ib Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, alleging involvement in directing multiple attacks targeting U.S. citizens, Jewish sites, and interests in retaliation for regional conflicts. This indictment falls squarely within the market’s timeframe and aligns with ongoing counterterrorism and sanctions enforcement against Iranian networks. While the current 99.8 percent implied probability reflects broad agreement that resolution criteria have been met, traders still monitor potential late-stage developments such as procedural delays, evidentiary challenges, or new diplomatic constraints that could affect final confirmation before the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$18,274Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Recent federal actions by the Department of Justice have driven near-certain trader consensus on this outcome. On May 15, prosecutors unsealed charges against an Iraqi national described as a senior operative for Kata’ib Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, alleging involvement in directing multiple attacks targeting U.S. citizens, Jewish sites, and interests in retaliation for regional conflicts. This indictment falls squarely within the market’s timeframe and aligns with ongoing counterterrorism and sanctions enforcement against Iranian networks. While the current 99.8 percent implied probability reflects broad agreement that resolution criteria have been met, traders still monitor potential late-stage developments such as procedural delays, evidentiary challenges, or new diplomatic constraints that could affect final confirmation before the May 31 deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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