Elon Musk announced formation of the America Party in July 2025 amid a feud with President Trump over spending legislation, but took no formal steps such as filing with the Federal Election Commission or securing ballot access in any state. Reports by late August 2025 indicated the effort had stalled, with Musk shelving plans to avoid straining ties with Vice President JD Vance and to refocus on his companies. Musk subsequently resumed substantial donations to Republican super PACs ahead of the 2026 midterms and has shown no further movement toward registering or operating any party. These developments, alongside the structural barriers to launching a viable new party, sustain the 92.1% implied probability that no registration will occur before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 dic 2026
7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.Elon Musk announced formation of the America Party in July 2025 amid a feud with President Trump over spending legislation, but took no formal steps such as filing with the Federal Election Commission or securing ballot access in any state. Reports by late August 2025 indicated the effort had stalled, with Musk shelving plans to avoid straining ties with Vice President JD Vance and to refocus on his companies. Musk subsequently resumed substantial donations to Republican super PACs ahead of the 2026 midterms and has shown no further movement toward registering or operating any party. These developments, alongside the structural barriers to launching a viable new party, sustain the 92.1% implied probability that no registration will occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$6,939Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.Elon Musk announced formation of the America Party in July 2025 amid a feud with President Trump over spending legislation, but took no formal steps such as filing with the Federal Election Commission or securing ballot access in any state. Reports by late August 2025 indicated the effort had stalled, with Musk shelving plans to avoid straining ties with Vice President JD Vance and to refocus on his companies. Musk subsequently resumed substantial donations to Republican super PACs ahead of the 2026 midterms and has shown no further movement toward registering or operating any party. These developments, alongside the structural barriers to launching a viable new party, sustain the 92.1% implied probability that no registration will occur before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
Volume
$6,939Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk announced formation of the America Party in July 2025 amid a feud with President Trump over spending legislation, but took no formal steps such as filing with the Federal Election Commission or securing ballot access in any state. Reports by late August 2025 indicated the effort had stalled, with Musk shelving plans to avoid straining ties with Vice President JD Vance and to refocus on his companies. Musk subsequently resumed substantial donations to Republican super PACs ahead of the 2026 midterms and has shown no further movement toward registering or operating any party. These developments, alongside the structural barriers to launching a viable new party, sustain the 92.1% implied probability that no registration will occur before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti