OpenAI’s limited progress on a dedicated social network underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability that none will launch in 2026. Despite 2025 prototypes pairing ChatGPT image generation with a social feed and Sam Altman’s February 2025 hint about a possible “social app,” recent reporting confirms the effort remains in very early stages with a small team and no firm timeline. OpenAI has instead prioritized core large language model development, ChatGPT advertising tests, enterprise AI agents, and the short-lived Sora video-sharing feature that launched and was discontinued within months. With roughly four months left in the year, the absence of official announcements, regulatory filings, or supply-chain signals makes a full release improbable. A rapid pivot to integrate social features directly into ChatGPT could theoretically shift sentiment, yet current verified developments point to sustained focus on AI infrastructure over platform expansion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOpenAI rilascerà un social network nel 2026?
OpenAI rilascerà un social network nel 2026?
Sì
8% probabilità
$63,207 Vol.
$63,207 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
8% probabilità
$63,207 Vol.
$63,207 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s limited progress on a dedicated social network underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability that none will launch in 2026. Despite 2025 prototypes pairing ChatGPT image generation with a social feed and Sam Altman’s February 2025 hint about a possible “social app,” recent reporting confirms the effort remains in very early stages with a small team and no firm timeline. OpenAI has instead prioritized core large language model development, ChatGPT advertising tests, enterprise AI agents, and the short-lived Sora video-sharing feature that launched and was discontinued within months. With roughly four months left in the year, the absence of official announcements, regulatory filings, or supply-chain signals makes a full release improbable. A rapid pivot to integrate social features directly into ChatGPT could theoretically shift sentiment, yet current verified developments point to sustained focus on AI infrastructure over platform expansion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volume
$63,207Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s limited progress on a dedicated social network underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability that none will launch in 2026. Despite 2025 prototypes pairing ChatGPT image generation with a social feed and Sam Altman’s February 2025 hint about a possible “social app,” recent reporting confirms the effort remains in very early stages with a small team and no firm timeline. OpenAI has instead prioritized core large language model development, ChatGPT advertising tests, enterprise AI agents, and the short-lived Sora video-sharing feature that launched and was discontinued within months. With roughly four months left in the year, the absence of official announcements, regulatory filings, or supply-chain signals makes a full release improbable. A rapid pivot to integrate social features directly into ChatGPT could theoretically shift sentiment, yet current verified developments point to sustained focus on AI infrastructure over platform expansion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$63,207Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s limited progress on a dedicated social network underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability that none will launch in 2026. Despite 2025 prototypes pairing ChatGPT image generation with a social feed and Sam Altman’s February 2025 hint about a possible “social app,” recent reporting confirms the effort remains in very early stages with a small team and no firm timeline. OpenAI has instead prioritized core large language model development, ChatGPT advertising tests, enterprise AI agents, and the short-lived Sora video-sharing feature that launched and was discontinued within months. With roughly four months left in the year, the absence of official announcements, regulatory filings, or supply-chain signals makes a full release improbable. A rapid pivot to integrate social features directly into ChatGPT could theoretically shift sentiment, yet current verified developments point to sustained focus on AI infrastructure over platform expansion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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