Russian forces' recent advances in Sumy Oblast border areas, including claims of capturing the northern and central parts of Riasne village as of early May, have driven trader consensus to a near-certain 99.7% implied probability for full control of the specified intersection by May 31, per ISW maps. Ongoing clearing operations amid intensified assaults, following April gains near the settlement and nearby captures like Myropillia, reflect steady pressure to establish a buffer zone, with DRG infiltrations enabling incremental progress despite Ukrainian FPV drone counterstrikes. While Ukrainian defenses have repelled some probes, a major counteroffensive or rapid reinforcement could theoretically shift control before resolution, though current momentum favors Russia.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Russia capture Riasne by May 31?
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?
$96,777 Vol.
$96,777 Vol.
31 mag 2026
$96,777 Vol.
$96,777 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces' recent advances in Sumy Oblast border areas, including claims of capturing the northern and central parts of Riasne village as of early May, have driven trader consensus to a near-certain 99.7% implied probability for full control of the specified intersection by May 31, per ISW maps. Ongoing clearing operations amid intensified assaults, following April gains near the settlement and nearby captures like Myropillia, reflect steady pressure to establish a buffer zone, with DRG infiltrations enabling incremental progress despite Ukrainian FPV drone counterstrikes. While Ukrainian defenses have repelled some probes, a major counteroffensive or rapid reinforcement could theoretically shift control before resolution, though current momentum favors Russia.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Apr 20, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$96,777Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 20, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces' recent advances in Sumy Oblast border areas, including claims of capturing the northern and central parts of Riasne village as of early May, have driven trader consensus to a near-certain 99.7% implied probability for full control of the specified intersection by May 31, per ISW maps. Ongoing clearing operations amid intensified assaults, following April gains near the settlement and nearby captures like Myropillia, reflect steady pressure to establish a buffer zone, with DRG infiltrations enabling incremental progress despite Ukrainian FPV drone counterstrikes. While Ukrainian defenses have repelled some probes, a major counteroffensive or rapid reinforcement could theoretically shift control before resolution, though current momentum favors Russia.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.694152° N, 35.391767° E in Riasne, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne1.png
Intersection Location in Riasne: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne2.png
Riasne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Riasne3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/wUGyKzGT3VtajBoH9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$96,777Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 20, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Russian forces' recent advances in Sumy Oblast border areas, including claims of capturing the northern and central parts of Riasne village as of early May, have driven trader consensus to a near-certain 99.7% implied probability for full control of the specified intersection by May 31, per ISW maps. Ongoing clearing operations amid intensified assaults, following April gains near the settlement and nearby captures like Myropillia, reflect steady pressure to establish a buffer zone, with DRG infiltrations enabling incremental progress despite Ukrainian FPV drone counterstrikes. While Ukrainian defenses have repelled some probes, a major counteroffensive or rapid reinforcement could theoretically shift control before resolution, though current momentum favors Russia.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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