Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure past April 30, driven by its sustained control amid the 2026 Iran war and economic protests. Harsh crackdowns—including mass arrests, executions like those of protesters in early April, and internet blackouts—have quelled widespread unrest sparked in January, while security forces and IRGC elements remain loyal despite leadership losses such as IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri and others. No verified elite defections or military collapses have emerged in the past two weeks, underscoring the regime's coercive resilience. Potential shifts could arise from sudden IRGC fractures, uncontainable uprisings, or escalated foreign military actions, though the short timeline limits feasibility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 aprile?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 aprile?
Sì
$31,974,596 Vol.
$31,974,596 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Sì
$31,974,596 Vol.
$31,974,596 Vol.
30 apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure past April 30, driven by its sustained control amid the 2026 Iran war and economic protests. Harsh crackdowns—including mass arrests, executions like those of protesters in early April, and internet blackouts—have quelled widespread unrest sparked in January, while security forces and IRGC elements remain loyal despite leadership losses such as IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri and others. No verified elite defections or military collapses have emerged in the past two weeks, underscoring the regime's coercive resilience. Potential shifts could arise from sudden IRGC fractures, uncontainable uprisings, or escalated foreign military actions, though the short timeline limits feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Volume
$31,974,596Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure past April 30, driven by its sustained control amid the 2026 Iran war and economic protests. Harsh crackdowns—including mass arrests, executions like those of protesters in early April, and internet blackouts—have quelled widespread unrest sparked in January, while security forces and IRGC elements remain loyal despite leadership losses such as IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri and others. No verified elite defections or military collapses have emerged in the past two weeks, underscoring the regime's coercive resilience. Potential shifts could arise from sudden IRGC fractures, uncontainable uprisings, or escalated foreign military actions, though the short timeline limits feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,974,596Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the Iranian regime will endure past April 30, driven by its sustained control amid the 2026 Iran war and economic protests. Harsh crackdowns—including mass arrests, executions like those of protesters in early April, and internet blackouts—have quelled widespread unrest sparked in January, while security forces and IRGC elements remain loyal despite leadership losses such as IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri and others. No verified elite defections or military collapses have emerged in the past two weeks, underscoring the regime's coercive resilience. Potential shifts could arise from sudden IRGC fractures, uncontainable uprisings, or escalated foreign military actions, though the short timeline limits feasibility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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