Trader consensus reflects 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, anchored in its resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. Despite surging 2025-2026 protests, economic collapse, and port blockades by CENTCOM as of April 16, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has enforced crackdowns, enabling a fragile leadership transition and ceasefire adherence without mass defections or military takeover. Ongoing domestic unrest persists but lacks momentum for imminent overthrow, with historical patterns showing regime survival through suppression. Realistic shifts could stem from escalated protests, IRGC fractures, or renewed airstrikes in the final two weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 aprile?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 aprile?
Sì
$31,950,540 Vol.
$31,950,540 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Sì
$31,950,540 Vol.
$31,950,540 Vol.
30 apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, anchored in its resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. Despite surging 2025-2026 protests, economic collapse, and port blockades by CENTCOM as of April 16, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has enforced crackdowns, enabling a fragile leadership transition and ceasefire adherence without mass defections or military takeover. Ongoing domestic unrest persists but lacks momentum for imminent overthrow, with historical patterns showing regime survival through suppression. Realistic shifts could stem from escalated protests, IRGC fractures, or renewed airstrikes in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Volume
$31,950,540Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, anchored in its resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. Despite surging 2025-2026 protests, economic collapse, and port blockades by CENTCOM as of April 16, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has enforced crackdowns, enabling a fragile leadership transition and ceasefire adherence without mass defections or military takeover. Ongoing domestic unrest persists but lacks momentum for imminent overthrow, with historical patterns showing regime survival through suppression. Realistic shifts could stem from escalated protests, IRGC fractures, or renewed airstrikes in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,950,540Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, anchored in its resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. Despite surging 2025-2026 protests, economic collapse, and port blockades by CENTCOM as of April 16, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has enforced crackdowns, enabling a fragile leadership transition and ceasefire adherence without mass defections or military takeover. Ongoing domestic unrest persists but lacks momentum for imminent overthrow, with historical patterns showing regime survival through suppression. Realistic shifts could stem from escalated protests, IRGC fractures, or renewed airstrikes in the final two weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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