**Trader consensus on a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 remains overwhelmingly negative, with the “No” outcome priced near 90 percent.** This reflects sustained maximum-pressure tactics—oil blockade, sanctions, and the May 2026 indictment of Raúl Castro—rather than authorized military action. Pentagon briefings have examined contingency options, including an air assault by the 101st Airborne Division, yet officials have repeatedly stated these remain early-stage planning without presidential authorization. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, domestic political costs, and Cuba’s limited military capacity further reduce the likelihood of full-scale invasion. Diplomatic contacts and prisoner releases have also continued amid the economic crisis, reinforcing the market view that escalation is more likely to stay below the threshold of boots-on-the-ground regime change this year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$3,215,743 Vol.
$3,215,743 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$3,215,743 Vol.
$3,215,743 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**Trader consensus on a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 remains overwhelmingly negative, with the “No” outcome priced near 90 percent.** This reflects sustained maximum-pressure tactics—oil blockade, sanctions, and the May 2026 indictment of Raúl Castro—rather than authorized military action. Pentagon briefings have examined contingency options, including an air assault by the 101st Airborne Division, yet officials have repeatedly stated these remain early-stage planning without presidential authorization. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, domestic political costs, and Cuba’s limited military capacity further reduce the likelihood of full-scale invasion. Diplomatic contacts and prisoner releases have also continued amid the economic crisis, reinforcing the market view that escalation is more likely to stay below the threshold of boots-on-the-ground regime change this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,215,743Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**Trader consensus on a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 remains overwhelmingly negative, with the “No” outcome priced near 90 percent.** This reflects sustained maximum-pressure tactics—oil blockade, sanctions, and the May 2026 indictment of Raúl Castro—rather than authorized military action. Pentagon briefings have examined contingency options, including an air assault by the 101st Airborne Division, yet officials have repeatedly stated these remain early-stage planning without presidential authorization. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, domestic political costs, and Cuba’s limited military capacity further reduce the likelihood of full-scale invasion. Diplomatic contacts and prisoner releases have also continued amid the economic crisis, reinforcing the market view that escalation is more likely to stay below the threshold of boots-on-the-ground regime change this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$3,215,743Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 remains overwhelmingly negative, with the “No” outcome priced near 90 percent.** This reflects sustained maximum-pressure tactics—oil blockade, sanctions, and the May 2026 indictment of Raúl Castro—rather than authorized military action. Pentagon briefings have examined contingency options, including an air assault by the 101st Airborne Division, yet officials have repeatedly stated these remain early-stage planning without presidential authorization. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, domestic political costs, and Cuba’s limited military capacity further reduce the likelihood of full-scale invasion. Diplomatic contacts and prisoner releases have also continued amid the economic crisis, reinforcing the market view that escalation is more likely to stay below the threshold of boots-on-the-ground regime change this year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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