Recent Pentagon directives have accelerated contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba, as reported on April 15, amid the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign of tightened sanctions and oil blockades following the January capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, which deepened Cuba's energy shortages and humanitarian crisis. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel marked the Bay of Pigs anniversary on April 16 by vowing defense against any U.S. aggression while leaving room for diplomacy. Traders nonetheless imply a 75.5% "No" probability, citing the absence of an explicit invasion order, high costs and risks of boots-on-the-ground intervention, competing U.S. priorities like Middle East escalations, and ongoing bilateral talks favoring economic leverage over military action before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,416,056 Vol.
$1,416,056 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$1,416,056 Vol.
$1,416,056 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent Pentagon directives have accelerated contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba, as reported on April 15, amid the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign of tightened sanctions and oil blockades following the January capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, which deepened Cuba's energy shortages and humanitarian crisis. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel marked the Bay of Pigs anniversary on April 16 by vowing defense against any U.S. aggression while leaving room for diplomacy. Traders nonetheless imply a 75.5% "No" probability, citing the absence of an explicit invasion order, high costs and risks of boots-on-the-ground intervention, competing U.S. priorities like Middle East escalations, and ongoing bilateral talks favoring economic leverage over military action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,416,056Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent Pentagon directives have accelerated contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba, as reported on April 15, amid the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign of tightened sanctions and oil blockades following the January capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, which deepened Cuba's energy shortages and humanitarian crisis. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel marked the Bay of Pigs anniversary on April 16 by vowing defense against any U.S. aggression while leaving room for diplomacy. Traders nonetheless imply a 75.5% "No" probability, citing the absence of an explicit invasion order, high costs and risks of boots-on-the-ground intervention, competing U.S. priorities like Middle East escalations, and ongoing bilateral talks favoring economic leverage over military action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$1,416,056Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Pentagon directives have accelerated contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba, as reported on April 15, amid the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign of tightened sanctions and oil blockades following the January capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, which deepened Cuba's energy shortages and humanitarian crisis. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel marked the Bay of Pigs anniversary on April 16 by vowing defense against any U.S. aggression while leaving room for diplomacy. Traders nonetheless imply a 75.5% "No" probability, citing the absence of an explicit invasion order, high costs and risks of boots-on-the-ground intervention, competing U.S. priorities like Middle East escalations, and ongoing bilateral talks favoring economic leverage over military action before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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