Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly in the eastern Atlantic but rapidly lost organization on August 28, 2026, downgrading to an open tropical wave amid strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air intrusion that disrupted its circulation. National Hurricane Center observations confirm no closed center or sustained intensification, with the remnants tracking west-northwest at 22-25 knots and maximum winds holding near 35 knots before expected dissipation. Official forecasts project near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the system encounters continued hostile conditions en route to the Leeward Islands. This environment, typical of mid-season Atlantic patterns, explains the 97% market-implied probability against hurricane status (74+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale). A remote chance remains if the wave survives land interaction and encounters reduced shear farther west, though models show little support for such reorganization.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa tempesta tropicale Dolly si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?
La tempesta tropicale Dolly si rafforzerà fino a diventare un uragano?
Sì
2% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 set 2026
Sì
2% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly in the eastern Atlantic but rapidly lost organization on August 28, 2026, downgrading to an open tropical wave amid strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air intrusion that disrupted its circulation. National Hurricane Center observations confirm no closed center or sustained intensification, with the remnants tracking west-northwest at 22-25 knots and maximum winds holding near 35 knots before expected dissipation. Official forecasts project near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the system encounters continued hostile conditions en route to the Leeward Islands. This environment, typical of mid-season Atlantic patterns, explains the 97% market-implied probability against hurricane status (74+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale). A remote chance remains if the wave survives land interaction and encounters reduced shear farther west, though models show little support for such reorganization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$725Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly in the eastern Atlantic but rapidly lost organization on August 28, 2026, downgrading to an open tropical wave amid strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air intrusion that disrupted its circulation. National Hurricane Center observations confirm no closed center or sustained intensification, with the remnants tracking west-northwest at 22-25 knots and maximum winds holding near 35 knots before expected dissipation. Official forecasts project near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the system encounters continued hostile conditions en route to the Leeward Islands. This environment, typical of mid-season Atlantic patterns, explains the 97% market-implied probability against hurricane status (74+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale). A remote chance remains if the wave survives land interaction and encounters reduced shear farther west, though models show little support for such reorganization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$725Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly in the eastern Atlantic but rapidly lost organization on August 28, 2026, downgrading to an open tropical wave amid strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air intrusion that disrupted its circulation. National Hurricane Center observations confirm no closed center or sustained intensification, with the remnants tracking west-northwest at 22-25 knots and maximum winds holding near 35 knots before expected dissipation. Official forecasts project near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the system encounters continued hostile conditions en route to the Leeward Islands. This environment, typical of mid-season Atlantic patterns, explains the 97% market-implied probability against hurricane status (74+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale). A remote chance remains if the wave survives land interaction and encounters reduced shear farther west, though models show little support for such reorganization.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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