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2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？

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2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？

5月 10

5月 10

観測史上3番目に暑い 63%

4番目以内 17%

2番目の高温 17%

観測史上1位の暑さ 4.7%

Polymarket

$70,610 Vol.

観測史上3番目に暑い 63%

4番目以内 17%

2番目の高温 17%

観測史上1位の暑さ 4.7%

Polymarket

$70,610 Vol.

観測史上1位の暑さ

$7,367 Vol.

5%

2番目の高温

$21,067 Vol.

17%

観測史上3番目に暑い

$14,449 Vol.

63%

4番目以内

$27,734 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface temperature anomalies tracking around 1.49°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—matching April 2025's second-place mark per Berkeley Earth—but traders assign 63% implied probability to third hottest overall due to the cooling influence of a fading La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA). This lacks the El Niño amplification that propelled April 2024 (warmest on record) and 2025 ahead, with recent daily updates and multi-model forecasts signaling above-normal but moderated warmth for the month's remainder. Copernicus and NOAA final bulletins, due early May, will confirm rankings across datasets amid inherent monthly variability.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$70,610
終了日
2026/05/10
マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data through mid-April 2026 shows global surface temperature anomalies tracking around 1.49°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—matching April 2025's second-place mark per Berkeley Earth—but traders assign 63% implied probability to third hottest overall due to the cooling influence of a fading La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA). This lacks the El Niño amplification that propelled April 2024 (warmest on record) and 2025 ahead, with recent daily updates and multi-model forecasts signaling above-normal but moderated warmth for the month's remainder. Copernicus and NOAA final bulletins, due early May, will confirm rankings across datasets amid inherent monthly variability.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$70,610
終了日
2026/05/10
マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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よくある質問

「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「観測史上3番目に暑い」で63%、次いで「2番目の高温」が17%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、63¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に63%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」は$70.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 24, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「観測史上3番目に暑い」で63%であり、市場がこの結果に63%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「2番目の高温」で17%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年4月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。