Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects seismic quiet since the 7.4-magnitude Taiwan earthquake on April 3, 2024—the strongest in 25 years there—driving caution in bets for another M7.0+ event by the market's deadline. USGS data shows global M7+ quakes average 12-20 annually, or about 1-2 monthly, with none recorded since amid normal tectonic variability along the Ring of Fire. No precursor swarms or unusual activity reported in high-risk zones like Japan, Indonesia, or the Pacific Northwest. Bettors eye real-time USGS feeds for aftershocks or new ruptures, as short-term forecasting remains unreliable; resolution hinges on verified magnitudes before cutoff, underscoring prediction markets' edge in aggregating geophysical probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日また7.0以上の地震が... ？
また7.0以上の地震が... ？
NEW
May 31, 2026
3月31日
18%
4月30日
80%
5月31日
90%
$7,611 Vol.
3月31日
$2,968 Vol.
18%
4月30日
$2,661 Vol.
80%
5月31日
$1,982 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects seismic quiet since the 7.4-magnitude Taiwan earthquake on April 3, 2024—the strongest in 25 years there—driving caution in bets for another M7.0+ event by the market's deadline. USGS data shows global M7+ quakes average 12-20 annually, or about 1-2 monthly, with none recorded since amid normal tectonic variability along the Ring of Fire. No precursor swarms or unusual activity reported in high-risk zones like Japan, Indonesia, or the Pacific Northwest. Bettors eye real-time USGS feeds for aftershocks or new ruptures, as short-term forecasting remains unreliable; resolution hinges on verified magnitudes before cutoff, underscoring prediction markets' edge in aggregating geophysical probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
音量
$7,611終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects seismic quiet since the 7.4-magnitude Taiwan earthquake on April 3, 2024—the strongest in 25 years there—driving caution in bets for another M7.0+ event by the market's deadline. USGS data shows global M7+ quakes average 12-20 annually, or about 1-2 monthly, with none recorded since amid normal tectonic variability along the Ring of Fire. No precursor swarms or unusual activity reported in high-risk zones like Japan, Indonesia, or the Pacific Northwest. Bettors eye real-time USGS feeds for aftershocks or new ruptures, as short-term forecasting remains unreliable; resolution hinges on verified magnitudes before cutoff, underscoring prediction markets' edge in aggregating geophysical probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$7,611終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects seismic quiet since the 7.4-magnitude Taiwan earthquake on April 3, 2024—the strongest in 25 years there—driving caution in bets for another M7.0+ event by the market's deadline. USGS data shows global M7+ quakes average 12-20 annually, or about 1-2 monthly, with none recorded since amid normal tectonic variability along the Ring of Fire. No precursor swarms or unusual activity reported in high-risk zones like Japan, Indonesia, or the Pacific Northwest. Bettors eye real-time USGS feeds for aftershocks or new ruptures, as short-term forecasting remains unreliable; resolution hinges on verified magnitudes before cutoff, underscoring prediction markets' edge in aggregating geophysical probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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