Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Tehrani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Buenos Aires designating the IRGC a terrorist organization—marks the most recent such action, following a March wave by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon amid heightened regional tensions. With no further verified diplomatic expulsions or escalatory incidents like missile strikes or intelligence revelations in the six days since, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" additional action by April 30, viewing the anti-Iran momentum as plateaued. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking military developments, sanctions, or alliance pressures, though current de-escalation signals bolster stability expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/04/30
はい
新規
新規
2026/04/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Tehrani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Buenos Aires designating the IRGC a terrorist organization—marks the most recent such action, following a March wave by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon amid heightened regional tensions. With no further verified diplomatic expulsions or escalatory incidents like missile strikes or intelligence revelations in the six days since, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" additional action by April 30, viewing the anti-Iran momentum as plateaued. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking military developments, sanctions, or alliance pressures, though current de-escalation signals bolster stability expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
音量
$2,604終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Tehrani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Buenos Aires designating the IRGC a terrorist organization—marks the most recent such action, following a March wave by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon amid heightened regional tensions. With no further verified diplomatic expulsions or escalatory incidents like missile strikes or intelligence revelations in the six days since, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" additional action by April 30, viewing the anti-Iran momentum as plateaued. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking military developments, sanctions, or alliance pressures, though current de-escalation signals bolster stability expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,604終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Tehrani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Buenos Aires designating the IRGC a terrorist organization—marks the most recent such action, following a March wave by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon amid heightened regional tensions. With no further verified diplomatic expulsions or escalatory incidents like missile strikes or intelligence revelations in the six days since, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" additional action by April 30, viewing the anti-Iran momentum as plateaued. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking military developments, sanctions, or alliance pressures, though current de-escalation signals bolster stability expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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