Apple’s strategic pivot away from Vision Pro hardware updates drives the 96% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Multiple credible reports from mid-2026, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, indicate the company has reassigned engineers from the Vision Products group to prioritize AI smart glasses slated for late 2027, while canceling the lighter Vision Air project and placing any true Vision Pro successor “on ice” until at least late 2028. The original 2024 model and its 2025 M5 refresh received lukewarm consumer response, prompting Apple to focus resources on lighter, more affordable wearable AI devices with greater mass-market potential. A surprise acceleration would require rapid component cost reductions or major technical breakthroughs that current supply-chain and internal signals do not support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s strategic pivot away from Vision Pro hardware updates drives the 96% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Multiple credible reports from mid-2026, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, indicate the company has reassigned engineers from the Vision Products group to prioritize AI smart glasses slated for late 2027, while canceling the lighter Vision Air project and placing any true Vision Pro successor “on ice” until at least late 2028. The original 2024 model and its 2025 M5 refresh received lukewarm consumer response, prompting Apple to focus resources on lighter, more affordable wearable AI devices with greater mass-market potential. A surprise acceleration would require rapid component cost reductions or major technical breakthroughs that current supply-chain and internal signals do not support.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$6,272終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s strategic pivot away from Vision Pro hardware updates drives the 96% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Multiple credible reports from mid-2026, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, indicate the company has reassigned engineers from the Vision Products group to prioritize AI smart glasses slated for late 2027, while canceling the lighter Vision Air project and placing any true Vision Pro successor “on ice” until at least late 2028. The original 2024 model and its 2025 M5 refresh received lukewarm consumer response, prompting Apple to focus resources on lighter, more affordable wearable AI devices with greater mass-market potential. A surprise acceleration would require rapid component cost reductions or major technical breakthroughs that current supply-chain and internal signals do not support.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,272終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s strategic pivot away from Vision Pro hardware updates drives the 96% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Multiple credible reports from mid-2026, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, indicate the company has reassigned engineers from the Vision Products group to prioritize AI smart glasses slated for late 2027, while canceling the lighter Vision Air project and placing any true Vision Pro successor “on ice” until at least late 2028. The original 2024 model and its 2025 M5 refresh received lukewarm consumer response, prompting Apple to focus resources on lighter, more affordable wearable AI devices with greater mass-market potential. A surprise acceleration would require rapid component cost reductions or major technical breakthroughs that current supply-chain and internal signals do not support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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