Florida's 9th congressional district carries an R+8 partisan voting index, creating structural headwinds for Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance exceeding the national ticket. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting the district's central Florida composition and recent map adjustments that strengthened GOP positioning. With the Republican primary set for August 18, 2026, early nominee dynamics and fundraising have reinforced trader expectations of a general-election Republican hold. Soto's reelection bid faces coordinated opposition targeting, while no major late developments have shifted the underlying electoral math in the 30 days prior to August 1. These factors align with the current 76.5% Republican implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$17,242 Vol.
$17,242 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
77%
民主党
24%
$17,242 Vol.
$17,242 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$10,047 Vol.
77%
民主党
$7,194 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 9th congressional district carries an R+8 partisan voting index, creating structural headwinds for Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance exceeding the national ticket. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting the district's central Florida composition and recent map adjustments that strengthened GOP positioning. With the Republican primary set for August 18, 2026, early nominee dynamics and fundraising have reinforced trader expectations of a general-election Republican hold. Soto's reelection bid faces coordinated opposition targeting, while no major late developments have shifted the underlying electoral math in the 30 days prior to August 1. These factors align with the current 76.5% Republican implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
音量
$17,242終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 9th congressional district carries an R+8 partisan voting index, creating structural headwinds for Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance exceeding the national ticket. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting the district's central Florida composition and recent map adjustments that strengthened GOP positioning. With the Republican primary set for August 18, 2026, early nominee dynamics and fundraising have reinforced trader expectations of a general-election Republican hold. Soto's reelection bid faces coordinated opposition targeting, while no major late developments have shifted the underlying electoral math in the 30 days prior to August 1. These factors align with the current 76.5% Republican implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$17,242終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 9th congressional district carries an R+8 partisan voting index, creating structural headwinds for Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance exceeding the national ticket. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting the district's central Florida composition and recent map adjustments that strengthened GOP positioning. With the Republican primary set for August 18, 2026, early nominee dynamics and fundraising have reinforced trader expectations of a general-election Republican hold. Soto's reelection bid faces coordinated opposition targeting, while no major late developments have shifted the underlying electoral math in the 30 days prior to August 1. These factors align with the current 76.5% Republican implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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