Forecast ensembles from major models indicate Austin highs on July 30 will most likely fall between 98–101°F, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those bins amid persistent summer ridging and above-average July climatology near 96–100°F. Recent guidance shows slight model spread from varying moisture and cloud cover, which could suppress or allow peaks near 102–105°F if skies clear more than expected. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing, and localized urban heat effects; any late adjustment in National Weather Service or ECMWF runs could shift implied probabilities before resolution. Traders weigh these factors against historical 100°F frequency in late July when assessing tail risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月30日のオースティンの最高気温は？
7月30日のオースティンの最高気温は？
100〜101°F 37%
98〜99°F 32%
96〜97°F 21%
102〜103°F 11%
新規
新規
2026/07/30
91°F以下
<1%
92〜93°F
2%
94〜95°F
4%
96〜97°F
21%
98〜99°F
32%
100〜101°F
37%
102〜103°F
11%
104～105°F
8%
106～107°F
2%
108～109°F
<1%
110°F以上
<1%
100〜101°F 37%
98〜99°F 32%
96〜97°F 21%
102〜103°F 11%
新規
新規
2026/07/30
91°F以下
$3,180 Vol.
<1%
92〜93°F
$78 Vol.
2%
94〜95°F
$25 Vol.
4%
96〜97°F
$250 Vol.
21%
98〜99°F
$150 Vol.
32%
100〜101°F
$681 Vol.
37%
102〜103°F
$59 Vol.
11%
104～105°F
$37 Vol.
8%
106～107°F
$18 Vol.
2%
108～109°F
$209 Vol.
<1%
110°F以上
$53 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast ensembles from major models indicate Austin highs on July 30 will most likely fall between 98–101°F, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those bins amid persistent summer ridging and above-average July climatology near 96–100°F. Recent guidance shows slight model spread from varying moisture and cloud cover, which could suppress or allow peaks near 102–105°F if skies clear more than expected. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing, and localized urban heat effects; any late adjustment in National Weather Service or ECMWF runs could shift implied probabilities before resolution. Traders weigh these factors against historical 100°F frequency in late July when assessing tail risks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
音量
$4,739終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 9:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast ensembles from major models indicate Austin highs on July 30 will most likely fall between 98–101°F, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those bins amid persistent summer ridging and above-average July climatology near 96–100°F. Recent guidance shows slight model spread from varying moisture and cloud cover, which could suppress or allow peaks near 102–105°F if skies clear more than expected. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing, and localized urban heat effects; any late adjustment in National Weather Service or ECMWF runs could shift implied probabilities before resolution. Traders weigh these factors against historical 100°F frequency in late July when assessing tail risks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$4,739終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 9:04 PM ETForecast ensembles from major models indicate Austin highs on July 30 will most likely fall between 98–101°F, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those bins amid persistent summer ridging and above-average July climatology near 96–100°F. Recent guidance shows slight model spread from varying moisture and cloud cover, which could suppress or allow peaks near 102–105°F if skies clear more than expected. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing, and localized urban heat effects; any late adjustment in National Weather Service or ECMWF runs could shift implied probabilities before resolution. Traders weigh these factors against historical 100°F frequency in late July when assessing tail risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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