Recent late-August heat across central Texas, with Austin recording multiple days above 103°F and a 107°F peak on August 22, has anchored trader focus on persistence into early September. Short-range forecasts from National Weather Service models currently project a high near 98–102°F on September 1 under mostly clear skies, southerly flow, and elevated heat indices near 110°F, consistent with the 100–104°F historical range for the date. While ENSO-neutral conditions and soil moisture deficits support above-normal warmth, no dynamical model runs or observed trends indicate a realistic pathway to 108°F or higher. The 49.5% market-implied probability on that tail outcome therefore appears driven more by recency bias than current observational or forecast data, leaving the 100–105°F range as the scientifically supported consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月1日のオースティンの最高気温は？
9月1日のオースティンの最高気温は？
98〜99°F 41%
100～101°F 23%
94～95°F 22%
102～103°F 21%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
89°F以下
1%
90〜91°F
14%
92～93°F
18%
94～95°F
22%
96～97°F
21%
98〜99°F
41%
100～101°F
23%
102～103°F
21%
104～105°F
17%
106〜107°F
<1%
108°F以上
<1%
98〜99°F 41%
100～101°F 23%
94～95°F 22%
102～103°F 21%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
89°F以下
$0 Vol.
1%
90〜91°F
$0 Vol.
14%
92～93°F
$0 Vol.
18%
94～95°F
$0 Vol.
22%
96～97°F
$0 Vol.
21%
98〜99°F
$0 Vol.
41%
100～101°F
$0 Vol.
23%
102～103°F
$8 Vol.
21%
104～105°F
$0 Vol.
17%
106〜107°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
108°F以上
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent late-August heat across central Texas, with Austin recording multiple days above 103°F and a 107°F peak on August 22, has anchored trader focus on persistence into early September. Short-range forecasts from National Weather Service models currently project a high near 98–102°F on September 1 under mostly clear skies, southerly flow, and elevated heat indices near 110°F, consistent with the 100–104°F historical range for the date. While ENSO-neutral conditions and soil moisture deficits support above-normal warmth, no dynamical model runs or observed trends indicate a realistic pathway to 108°F or higher. The 49.5% market-implied probability on that tail outcome therefore appears driven more by recency bias than current observational or forecast data, leaving the 100–105°F range as the scientifically supported consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
音量
$8終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent late-August heat across central Texas, with Austin recording multiple days above 103°F and a 107°F peak on August 22, has anchored trader focus on persistence into early September. Short-range forecasts from National Weather Service models currently project a high near 98–102°F on September 1 under mostly clear skies, southerly flow, and elevated heat indices near 110°F, consistent with the 100–104°F historical range for the date. While ENSO-neutral conditions and soil moisture deficits support above-normal warmth, no dynamical model runs or observed trends indicate a realistic pathway to 108°F or higher. The 49.5% market-implied probability on that tail outcome therefore appears driven more by recency bias than current observational or forecast data, leaving the 100–105°F range as the scientifically supported consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$8終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ETRecent late-August heat across central Texas, with Austin recording multiple days above 103°F and a 107°F peak on August 22, has anchored trader focus on persistence into early September. Short-range forecasts from National Weather Service models currently project a high near 98–102°F on September 1 under mostly clear skies, southerly flow, and elevated heat indices near 110°F, consistent with the 100–104°F historical range for the date. While ENSO-neutral conditions and soil moisture deficits support above-normal warmth, no dynamical model runs or observed trends indicate a realistic pathway to 108°F or higher. The 49.5% market-implied probability on that tail outcome therefore appears driven more by recency bias than current observational or forecast data, leaving the 100–105°F range as the scientifically supported consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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