Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Beijing on April 27?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 27?
25°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$214,203 Vol.
$214,203 Vol.
2026/04/27
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$214,203 Vol.
$214,203 Vol.
2026/04/27
17°C or below
$3,195 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,629 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,909 Vol.
No
20°C
$6,223 Vol.
No
21°C
$13,881 Vol.
No
22°C
$25,729 Vol.
No
23°C
$37,607 Vol.
No
24°C
$46,520 Vol.
No
25°C
$45,101 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$18,604 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$12,806 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$214,203終了日
2026/04/27マーケット開始日
Apr 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$214,203終了日
2026/04/27マーケット開始日
Apr 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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