Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chongqing's March 29 high, with implied probabilities clustered around 18–21°C as ensemble means from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS hover near 19–20°C. Recent developments include a stabilizing mild air mass following last week's frontal passage, which brought cooler temperatures in the mid-teens; current morning observations at Chongqing stations show lows near 14°C with light southerly flow promoting afternoon heating. Differentiating factors are cloud cover variability—potentially capping peaks at 18–19°C under overcast skies versus clearer intervals allowing 20–21°C—and urban heat island effects amplifying station readings. Official CMA updates expected midday, alongside hourly surface data, will sharpen resolution as the date unfolds.