Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$95,898 Vol.
$95,898 Vol.
2026/05/06
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$95,898 Vol.
$95,898 Vol.
2026/05/06
15°C or below
$451 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,872 Vol.
No
17°C
$3,922 Vol.
No
18°C
$6,427 Vol.
No
19°C
$25,366 Vol.
No
20°C
$18,244 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$11,151 Vol.
No
22°C
$9,066 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,075 Vol.
No
24°C
$5,768 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$6,557 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
音量
$95,898終了日
2026/05/06マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$95,898終了日
2026/05/06マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問