Recent model consensus from AEMET and ensemble runs shows Madrid under a strengthening high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light southerly flow, favoring strong daytime heating on the meseta. Official guidance centers the September 3 maximum near 37 °C, yet several GFS/ECMWF members reach 38–39 °C under slightly drier boundary-layer profiles or delayed mixing. The narrow 49 %–41 % market split between these two outcomes reflects this small but persistent spread in peak temperature tied to uncertainties in dew-point depression and afternoon wind gusts. Historical early-September analogs indicate 37–38 °C is typical, so traders are pricing the modest positive anomaly currently signaled by the latest runs while awaiting the next high-resolution update.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月3日のマドリードの最高気温は？
9月3日のマドリードの最高気温は？
38°C 49%
39°C 41%
37°C 8%
40°C 8%
新規
新規
2026/09/03
33°C or below
2%
34°C
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
4%
37°C
8%
38°C
49%
39°C
41%
40°C
8%
41°C
3%
42°C
1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 49%
39°C 41%
37°C 8%
40°C 8%
新規
新規
2026/09/03
33°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
34°C
$5 Vol.
2%
35°C
$5 Vol.
4%
36°C
$0 Vol.
4%
37°C
$10 Vol.
8%
38°C
$135 Vol.
49%
39°C
$92 Vol.
41%
40°C
$13 Vol.
8%
41°C
$10 Vol.
3%
42°C
$19 Vol.
1%
43°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and ensemble runs shows Madrid under a strengthening high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light southerly flow, favoring strong daytime heating on the meseta. Official guidance centers the September 3 maximum near 37 °C, yet several GFS/ECMWF members reach 38–39 °C under slightly drier boundary-layer profiles or delayed mixing. The narrow 49 %–41 % market split between these two outcomes reflects this small but persistent spread in peak temperature tied to uncertainties in dew-point depression and afternoon wind gusts. Historical early-September analogs indicate 37–38 °C is typical, so traders are pricing the modest positive anomaly currently signaled by the latest runs while awaiting the next high-resolution update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$299終了日
2026/09/03マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and ensemble runs shows Madrid under a strengthening high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light southerly flow, favoring strong daytime heating on the meseta. Official guidance centers the September 3 maximum near 37 °C, yet several GFS/ECMWF members reach 38–39 °C under slightly drier boundary-layer profiles or delayed mixing. The narrow 49 %–41 % market split between these two outcomes reflects this small but persistent spread in peak temperature tied to uncertainties in dew-point depression and afternoon wind gusts. Historical early-September analogs indicate 37–38 °C is typical, so traders are pricing the modest positive anomaly currently signaled by the latest runs while awaiting the next high-resolution update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$299終了日
2026/09/03マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent model consensus from AEMET and ensemble runs shows Madrid under a strengthening high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light southerly flow, favoring strong daytime heating on the meseta. Official guidance centers the September 3 maximum near 37 °C, yet several GFS/ECMWF members reach 38–39 °C under slightly drier boundary-layer profiles or delayed mixing. The narrow 49 %–41 % market split between these two outcomes reflects this small but persistent spread in peak temperature tied to uncertainties in dew-point depression and afternoon wind gusts. Historical early-September analogs indicate 37–38 °C is typical, so traders are pricing the modest positive anomaly currently signaled by the latest runs while awaiting the next high-resolution update.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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