Recent weather model guidance for Paris points to peak afternoon temperatures of 34–36°C on August 12, driven by a broad area of high pressure and southerly flow advecting warmer air masses across northern France. These conditions align with the market’s strongest implied probabilities at 35°C (47.5%) and 34°C (27.0%), reflecting ensemble consensus from European and global models that have shown limited day-to-day shifts. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 25°C, so the current setup represents an above-average but not extreme event, with uncertainty remaining around exact timing of any cloud cover or localized cooling that could cap readings at 34°C or push them to 36°C. Updated model runs and official Météo-France guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月12日のパリの最高気温は？
8月12日のパリの最高気温は？
35°C 48%
34℃ 28%
36°C 15%
33°C 7%
新規
新規
2026/08/12
29℃以下
<1%
30°C
<1%
31℃
<1%
32℃
1%
33°C
7%
34℃
28%
35°C
48%
36°C
15%
37℃
3%
38°C
1%
39°C以上
<1%
35°C 48%
34℃ 28%
36°C 15%
33°C 7%
新規
新規
2026/08/12
29℃以下
$1,650 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
31℃
$711 Vol.
<1%
32℃
$273 Vol.
1%
33°C
$416 Vol.
7%
34℃
$627 Vol.
28%
35°C
$1,034 Vol.
48%
36°C
$456 Vol.
15%
37℃
$335 Vol.
3%
38°C
$211 Vol.
1%
39°C以上
$231 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model guidance for Paris points to peak afternoon temperatures of 34–36°C on August 12, driven by a broad area of high pressure and southerly flow advecting warmer air masses across northern France. These conditions align with the market’s strongest implied probabilities at 35°C (47.5%) and 34°C (27.0%), reflecting ensemble consensus from European and global models that have shown limited day-to-day shifts. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 25°C, so the current setup represents an above-average but not extreme event, with uncertainty remaining around exact timing of any cloud cover or localized cooling that could cap readings at 34°C or push them to 36°C. Updated model runs and official Météo-France guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$6,093終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model guidance for Paris points to peak afternoon temperatures of 34–36°C on August 12, driven by a broad area of high pressure and southerly flow advecting warmer air masses across northern France. These conditions align with the market’s strongest implied probabilities at 35°C (47.5%) and 34°C (27.0%), reflecting ensemble consensus from European and global models that have shown limited day-to-day shifts. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 25°C, so the current setup represents an above-average but not extreme event, with uncertainty remaining around exact timing of any cloud cover or localized cooling that could cap readings at 34°C or push them to 36°C. Updated model runs and official Météo-France guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$6,093終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent weather model guidance for Paris points to peak afternoon temperatures of 34–36°C on August 12, driven by a broad area of high pressure and southerly flow advecting warmer air masses across northern France. These conditions align with the market’s strongest implied probabilities at 35°C (47.5%) and 34°C (27.0%), reflecting ensemble consensus from European and global models that have shown limited day-to-day shifts. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 25°C, so the current setup represents an above-average but not extreme event, with uncertainty remaining around exact timing of any cloud cover or localized cooling that could cap readings at 34°C or push them to 36°C. Updated model runs and official Météo-France guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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