Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts peg Seoul's March 23 high near 15°C, driving trader consensus toward that outcome at 21.5% implied probability, just behind 16°C or higher at 27.5%. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show a tight spread of 13-16°C, differentiated by uncertainty in cloud cover from an approaching low-pressure trough and lingering northerly winds post-recent cold snap. Historical March highs average 12°C but often spike 3-4°C above on clear anticyclone days; current upper-air patterns favor mild advection, yet diel heating limits could cap peaks at 14-15°C if stratus persists, explaining the clustered odds for 13-16°C outcomes. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月23日のソウルの最高気温は?
3月23日のソウルの最高気温は?
16℃以上 27%
15°C 22%
14℃ 17%
13℃ 16%
$10,980 Vol.
$10,980 Vol.
6℃以下
<1%
7°C
1%
8℃
1%
9℃
2%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12℃
12%
13℃
16%
14℃
17%
15°C
22%
16℃以上
27%
16℃以上 27%
15°C 22%
14℃ 17%
13℃ 16%
$10,980 Vol.
$10,980 Vol.
6℃以下
<1%
7°C
1%
8℃
1%
9℃
2%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12℃
12%
13℃
16%
14℃
17%
15°C
22%
16℃以上
27%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts peg Seoul's March 23 high near 15°C, driving trader consensus toward that outcome at 21.5% implied probability, just behind 16°C or higher at 27.5%. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show a tight spread of 13-16°C, differentiated by uncertainty in cloud cover from an approaching low-pressure trough and lingering northerly winds post-recent cold snap. Historical March highs average 12°C but often spike 3-4°C above on clear anticyclone days; current upper-air patterns favor mild advection, yet diel heating limits could cap peaks at 14-15°C if stratus persists, explaining the clustered odds for 13-16°C outcomes. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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