Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 21°C (32.5%), 22°C (25.5%), and 20°C (21.5%) for Tel Aviv's March 20 high temperature, driven by converging global weather model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS showing peaks in this narrow 20-22°C band under a persistent Mediterranean high-pressure ridge. The ECMWF's latest deterministic run favors 21°C with light winds and partial cloud cover limiting extremes, while GFS hints at 22°C via stronger insolation forecasts. Key differentiators include sea-breeze timing—potentially cooling by 1°C if onshore flows strengthen midday—and subtle urban heat island amplification in Tel Aviv. Historical March averages of 20.8°C reinforce this mild consensus, with upcoming 12Z model updates poised to sharpen odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 20?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 20?
22°C 34%
21°C 33%
20°C 22%
23°C 6.8%
$26,852 Vol.
$26,852 Vol.
17°C or below
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
5%
20°C
22%
21°C
33%
22°C
37%
23°C
7%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 34%
21°C 33%
20°C 22%
23°C 6.8%
$26,852 Vol.
$26,852 Vol.
17°C or below
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
5%
20°C
22%
21°C
33%
22°C
37%
23°C
7%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 21°C (32.5%), 22°C (25.5%), and 20°C (21.5%) for Tel Aviv's March 20 high temperature, driven by converging global weather model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS showing peaks in this narrow 20-22°C band under a persistent Mediterranean high-pressure ridge. The ECMWF's latest deterministic run favors 21°C with light winds and partial cloud cover limiting extremes, while GFS hints at 22°C via stronger insolation forecasts. Key differentiators include sea-breeze timing—potentially cooling by 1°C if onshore flows strengthen midday—and subtle urban heat island amplification in Tel Aviv. Historical March averages of 20.8°C reinforce this mild consensus, with upcoming 12Z model updates poised to sharpen odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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