**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$163,579 Vol.
$163,579 Vol.
2026/05/06
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$163,579 Vol.
$163,579 Vol.
2026/05/06
14°C or below
$10,794 Vol.
No
15°C
$12,279 Vol.
No
16°C
$242 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,103 Vol.
No
18°C
$11,231 Vol.
No
19°C
$12,735 Vol.
No
20°C
$15,492 Vol.
No
21°C
$37,279 Vol.
No
22°C
$24,813 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$16,386 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$21,224 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
音量
$163,579終了日
2026/05/06マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$163,579終了日
2026/05/06マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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