The US unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in August 2026, down from 4.3% earlier in the year, supported by payroll gains averaging near 80,000 monthly amid a historically low breakeven pace of job creation. Structural labor-supply constraints—including slower net immigration and elevated retirements—have kept the market balanced despite softer hiring demand, limiting upward pressure on the jobless rate even as the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points in September to address above-target inflation. FOMC projections anticipate the rate holding near 4.1–4.3% through year-end, with October employment data and ongoing inflation readings as key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader-implied odds on the 2026 peak.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$517,335 Vol.
2027/01/31
5.0%
5%
5.5%
4%
6.0%
2%
7.0%
4%
10.0%
3%
$517,335 Vol.
5.0%
$143,792 Vol.
5%
5.5%
$206,691 Vol.
4%
6.0%
$81,606 Vol.
2%
7.0%
$33,900 Vol.
4%
10.0%
$51,346 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The US unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in August 2026, down from 4.3% earlier in the year, supported by payroll gains averaging near 80,000 monthly amid a historically low breakeven pace of job creation. Structural labor-supply constraints—including slower net immigration and elevated retirements—have kept the market balanced despite softer hiring demand, limiting upward pressure on the jobless rate even as the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points in September to address above-target inflation. FOMC projections anticipate the rate holding near 4.1–4.3% through year-end, with October employment data and ongoing inflation readings as key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader-implied odds on the 2026 peak.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$517,335終了日
2027/04/01マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The US unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in August 2026, down from 4.3% earlier in the year, supported by payroll gains averaging near 80,000 monthly amid a historically low breakeven pace of job creation. Structural labor-supply constraints—including slower net immigration and elevated retirements—have kept the market balanced despite softer hiring demand, limiting upward pressure on the jobless rate even as the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points in September to address above-target inflation. FOMC projections anticipate the rate holding near 4.1–4.3% through year-end, with October employment data and ongoing inflation readings as key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader-implied odds on the 2026 peak.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$517,335終了日
2027/04/01マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...The US unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in August 2026, down from 4.3% earlier in the year, supported by payroll gains averaging near 80,000 monthly amid a historically low breakeven pace of job creation. Structural labor-supply constraints—including slower net immigration and elevated retirements—have kept the market balanced despite softer hiring demand, limiting upward pressure on the jobless rate even as the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points in September to address above-target inflation. FOMC projections anticipate the rate holding near 4.1–4.3% through year-end, with October employment data and ongoing inflation readings as key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader-implied odds on the 2026 peak.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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