Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will arrive 25-30 minutes late to her next scheduled press briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room, reflecting her consistent pattern of delays observed over the past month amid high-stakes discussions on Iran tensions, DHS funding, and domestic issues. In a late March briefing, Leavitt apologized for a postponement, explaining she and President Trump were monitoring a press conference on a high-profile missing persons case involving NBC's Savannah Guthrie's mother. This recurring tardiness—echoed in prior prediction markets like Kalshi—stems from last-minute executive monitoring, though urgent diplomatic developments or schedule changes could prompt an earlier start. No briefing is yet announced, but traders anticipate the pattern holds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$8,689 Vol.
$8,689 Vol.
2026/03/31
20〜25分
20%
25～30分
86%
$8,689 Vol.
$8,689 Vol.
2026/03/31
20〜25分
$639 Vol.
20%
25～30分
$1,123 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Karoline Leavitt begins the next White House Press Conference she participates in. This market will resolve based on when Karoline Leavitt begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market refers to White House press briefings by Karoline Leavitt (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by Karoline Leavitt will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as Karoline Leavitt is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify.
If Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the acting White House Press Secretary for any amount of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying press briefing occurs by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will arrive 25-30 minutes late to her next scheduled press briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room, reflecting her consistent pattern of delays observed over the past month amid high-stakes discussions on Iran tensions, DHS funding, and domestic issues. In a late March briefing, Leavitt apologized for a postponement, explaining she and President Trump were monitoring a press conference on a high-profile missing persons case involving NBC's Savannah Guthrie's mother. This recurring tardiness—echoed in prior prediction markets like Kalshi—stems from last-minute executive monitoring, though urgent diplomatic developments or schedule changes could prompt an earlier start. No briefing is yet announced, but traders anticipate the pattern holds.
This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Karoline Leavitt begins the next White House Press Conference she participates in. This market will resolve based on when Karoline Leavitt begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market refers to White House press briefings by Karoline Leavitt (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by Karoline Leavitt will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as Karoline Leavitt is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify.
If Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the acting White House Press Secretary for any amount of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying press briefing occurs by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market refers to White House press briefings by Karoline Leavitt (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by Karoline Leavitt will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as Karoline Leavitt is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify.
If Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the acting White House Press Secretary for any amount of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying press briefing occurs by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 6:31 PM ET
音量
$8,689終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Karoline Leavitt begins the next White House Press Conference she participates in. This market will resolve based on when Karoline Leavitt begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market refers to White House press briefings by Karoline Leavitt (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by Karoline Leavitt will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as Karoline Leavitt is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify.
If Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the acting White House Press Secretary for any amount of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying press briefing occurs by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will arrive 25-30 minutes late to her next scheduled press briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room, reflecting her consistent pattern of delays observed over the past month amid high-stakes discussions on Iran tensions, DHS funding, and domestic issues. In a late March briefing, Leavitt apologized for a postponement, explaining she and President Trump were monitoring a press conference on a high-profile missing persons case involving NBC's Savannah Guthrie's mother. This recurring tardiness—echoed in prior prediction markets like Kalshi—stems from last-minute executive monitoring, though urgent diplomatic developments or schedule changes could prompt an earlier start. No briefing is yet announced, but traders anticipate the pattern holds.
This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Karoline Leavitt begins the next White House Press Conference she participates in. This market will resolve based on when Karoline Leavitt begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market refers to White House press briefings by Karoline Leavitt (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by Karoline Leavitt will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as Karoline Leavitt is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify.
If Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the acting White House Press Secretary for any amount of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying press briefing occurs by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market refers to White House press briefings by Karoline Leavitt (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by Karoline Leavitt will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as Karoline Leavitt is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify.
If Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the acting White House Press Secretary for any amount of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying press briefing occurs by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)
音量
$8,689終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will arrive 25-30 minutes late to her next scheduled press briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room, reflecting her consistent pattern of delays observed over the past month amid high-stakes discussions on Iran tensions, DHS funding, and domestic issues. In a late March briefing, Leavitt apologized for a postponement, explaining she and President Trump were monitoring a press conference on a high-profile missing persons case involving NBC's Savannah Guthrie's mother. This recurring tardiness—echoed in prior prediction markets like Kalshi—stems from last-minute executive monitoring, though urgent diplomatic developments or schedule changes could prompt an earlier start. No briefing is yet announced, but traders anticipate the pattern holds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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