Illinois's strong Democratic lean in federal elections, reinforced by the party's consistent performance in statewide contests since 2010, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the 2026 Senate race. Dick Durbin's retirement opened the seat for the first time in three decades, leading to a March primary won by Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who now faces Republican nominee Don Tracy in November. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the state's voter registration edge, urban concentration of Democratic support, and limited Republican statewide success in recent cycles. A late national political realignment, turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters, or unforeseen developments involving the nominees could narrow the margin, though such shifts would mark a departure from established electoral patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$24,944 Vol.
$24,944 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$24,944 Vol.
$24,944 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$12,804 Vol.
95%
共和党
$12,139 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's strong Democratic lean in federal elections, reinforced by the party's consistent performance in statewide contests since 2010, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the 2026 Senate race. Dick Durbin's retirement opened the seat for the first time in three decades, leading to a March primary won by Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who now faces Republican nominee Don Tracy in November. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the state's voter registration edge, urban concentration of Democratic support, and limited Republican statewide success in recent cycles. A late national political realignment, turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters, or unforeseen developments involving the nominees could narrow the margin, though such shifts would mark a departure from established electoral patterns.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$24,944終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's strong Democratic lean in federal elections, reinforced by the party's consistent performance in statewide contests since 2010, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the 2026 Senate race. Dick Durbin's retirement opened the seat for the first time in three decades, leading to a March primary won by Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who now faces Republican nominee Don Tracy in November. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the state's voter registration edge, urban concentration of Democratic support, and limited Republican statewide success in recent cycles. A late national political realignment, turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters, or unforeseen developments involving the nominees could narrow the margin, though such shifts would mark a departure from established electoral patterns.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$24,944終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's strong Democratic lean in federal elections, reinforced by the party's consistent performance in statewide contests since 2010, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the 2026 Senate race. Dick Durbin's retirement opened the seat for the first time in three decades, leading to a March primary won by Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who now faces Republican nominee Don Tracy in November. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the state's voter registration edge, urban concentration of Democratic support, and limited Republican statewide success in recent cycles. A late national political realignment, turnout surge among Republican-leaning voters, or unforeseen developments involving the nominees could narrow the margin, though such shifts would mark a departure from established electoral patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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