Recent military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving stockpiles of highly enriched uranium largely inaccessible in sealed tunnels and halting verifiable enrichment activity. IAEA inspections remain restricted at affected sites, with satellite imagery showing ongoing reconstruction at locations like Parchin and added defenses at Pickaxe Mountain but no operational centrifuge cascades or test preparations. This combination of physical degradation, denied access, and external pressure sustains trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. A shift would require undetected restoration of weaponization infrastructure or a rapid breakout capability despite current barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$258,549 Vol.
$258,549 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$258,549 Vol.
$258,549 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving stockpiles of highly enriched uranium largely inaccessible in sealed tunnels and halting verifiable enrichment activity. IAEA inspections remain restricted at affected sites, with satellite imagery showing ongoing reconstruction at locations like Parchin and added defenses at Pickaxe Mountain but no operational centrifuge cascades or test preparations. This combination of physical degradation, denied access, and external pressure sustains trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. A shift would require undetected restoration of weaponization infrastructure or a rapid breakout capability despite current barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$258,549終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving stockpiles of highly enriched uranium largely inaccessible in sealed tunnels and halting verifiable enrichment activity. IAEA inspections remain restricted at affected sites, with satellite imagery showing ongoing reconstruction at locations like Parchin and added defenses at Pickaxe Mountain but no operational centrifuge cascades or test preparations. This combination of physical degradation, denied access, and external pressure sustains trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. A shift would require undetected restoration of weaponization infrastructure or a rapid breakout capability despite current barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$258,549終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving stockpiles of highly enriched uranium largely inaccessible in sealed tunnels and halting verifiable enrichment activity. IAEA inspections remain restricted at affected sites, with satellite imagery showing ongoing reconstruction at locations like Parchin and added defenses at Pickaxe Mountain but no operational centrifuge cascades or test preparations. This combination of physical degradation, denied access, and external pressure sustains trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. A shift would require undetected restoration of weaponization infrastructure or a rapid breakout capability despite current barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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