Trader consensus assigns just a 13% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent barriers despite President Trump's October 2025 signals to resume testing amid suspected Russian and Chinese activities at their sites. The voluntary moratorium, in place since the last 1992 detonation at the Nevada National Security Site, endures due to national labs' annual certifications via stockpile stewardship that no explosive tests are technically needed; strong bipartisan Nevada opposition, highlighted by Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13 tour opposing resumption; and infrastructure timelines requiring months to years for readiness. Fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act votes represent the next key procedural milestone.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$642,529 Vol.
2026/06/30
2026年6月30日
2%
2026年9月30日
6%
2026年12月31日
13%
$642,529 Vol.
2026年6月30日
$24,401 Vol.
2%
2026年9月30日
$2,430 Vol.
6%
2026年12月31日
$5,479 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns just a 13% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent barriers despite President Trump's October 2025 signals to resume testing amid suspected Russian and Chinese activities at their sites. The voluntary moratorium, in place since the last 1992 detonation at the Nevada National Security Site, endures due to national labs' annual certifications via stockpile stewardship that no explosive tests are technically needed; strong bipartisan Nevada opposition, highlighted by Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13 tour opposing resumption; and infrastructure timelines requiring months to years for readiness. Fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act votes represent the next key procedural milestone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$642,529終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns just a 13% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent barriers despite President Trump's October 2025 signals to resume testing amid suspected Russian and Chinese activities at their sites. The voluntary moratorium, in place since the last 1992 detonation at the Nevada National Security Site, endures due to national labs' annual certifications via stockpile stewardship that no explosive tests are technically needed; strong bipartisan Nevada opposition, highlighted by Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13 tour opposing resumption; and infrastructure timelines requiring months to years for readiness. Fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act votes represent the next key procedural milestone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$642,529終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns just a 13% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting persistent barriers despite President Trump's October 2025 signals to resume testing amid suspected Russian and Chinese activities at their sites. The voluntary moratorium, in place since the last 1992 detonation at the Nevada National Security Site, endures due to national labs' annual certifications via stockpile stewardship that no explosive tests are technically needed; strong bipartisan Nevada opposition, highlighted by Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13 tour opposing resumption; and infrastructure timelines requiring months to years for readiness. Fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act votes represent the next key procedural milestone.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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