President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—last underground detonation in 1992—sparked debate but yielded no explosive tests, with Energy Secretary clarifying focus on non-nuclear activities amid NNSA assertions of no technical need via stockpile stewardship. Trader consensus prices a 13% implied probability of a nuclear chain reaction detonation by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent political hurdles, congressional opposition like Senator Rosen's April 13 Nevada National Security Site visit, and Russia's warnings of reciprocal actions. Recent NNSA April 17 chemical explosion experiment aids foreign test detection, not U.S. resumption, while early March U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and February State Department claims of a Chinese test heighten tensions without advancing preparations. Monitor Department of Energy budget debates and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty hearings for shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$641,216 Vol.
2026/06/30
2026年6月30日
2%
2026年9月30日
6%
2026年12月31日
13%
$641,216 Vol.
2026年6月30日
$24,401 Vol.
2%
2026年9月30日
$2,322 Vol.
6%
2026年12月31日
$4,274 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—last underground detonation in 1992—sparked debate but yielded no explosive tests, with Energy Secretary clarifying focus on non-nuclear activities amid NNSA assertions of no technical need via stockpile stewardship. Trader consensus prices a 13% implied probability of a nuclear chain reaction detonation by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent political hurdles, congressional opposition like Senator Rosen's April 13 Nevada National Security Site visit, and Russia's warnings of reciprocal actions. Recent NNSA April 17 chemical explosion experiment aids foreign test detection, not U.S. resumption, while early March U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and February State Department claims of a Chinese test heighten tensions without advancing preparations. Monitor Department of Energy budget debates and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty hearings for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$641,216終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—last underground detonation in 1992—sparked debate but yielded no explosive tests, with Energy Secretary clarifying focus on non-nuclear activities amid NNSA assertions of no technical need via stockpile stewardship. Trader consensus prices a 13% implied probability of a nuclear chain reaction detonation by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent political hurdles, congressional opposition like Senator Rosen's April 13 Nevada National Security Site visit, and Russia's warnings of reciprocal actions. Recent NNSA April 17 chemical explosion experiment aids foreign test detection, not U.S. resumption, while early March U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and February State Department claims of a Chinese test heighten tensions without advancing preparations. Monitor Department of Energy budget debates and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty hearings for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$641,216終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—last underground detonation in 1992—sparked debate but yielded no explosive tests, with Energy Secretary clarifying focus on non-nuclear activities amid NNSA assertions of no technical need via stockpile stewardship. Trader consensus prices a 13% implied probability of a nuclear chain reaction detonation by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent political hurdles, congressional opposition like Senator Rosen's April 13 Nevada National Security Site visit, and Russia's warnings of reciprocal actions. Recent NNSA April 17 chemical explosion experiment aids foreign test detection, not U.S. resumption, while early March U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and February State Department claims of a Chinese test heighten tensions without advancing preparations. Monitor Department of Energy budget debates and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty hearings for shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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