President Trump's October 2025 statements directing nuclear weapons testing on an "equal basis" with rivals prompted initial market movement, though subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield underground detonations. The United States has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with stockpile stewardship assessments confirming reliability without explosive tests. Technical readiness for an underground explosive test remains 24-36 months under current NNSA planning, creating a significant barrier before the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Congressional oversight, state-level opposition in Nevada, and diplomatic signaling around arms control further shape trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities. Scheduled FY2026 budget and NDAA processes could influence testing infrastructure funding but have not altered the moratorium to date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$768,767 Vol.
2026/09/30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$768,767 Vol.
2026年9月30日
$57,189 Vol.
1%
2026年12月31日
$50,767 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing nuclear weapons testing on an "equal basis" with rivals prompted initial market movement, though subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield underground detonations. The United States has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with stockpile stewardship assessments confirming reliability without explosive tests. Technical readiness for an underground explosive test remains 24-36 months under current NNSA planning, creating a significant barrier before the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Congressional oversight, state-level opposition in Nevada, and diplomatic signaling around arms control further shape trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities. Scheduled FY2026 budget and NDAA processes could influence testing infrastructure funding but have not altered the moratorium to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$768,767終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing nuclear weapons testing on an "equal basis" with rivals prompted initial market movement, though subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield underground detonations. The United States has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with stockpile stewardship assessments confirming reliability without explosive tests. Technical readiness for an underground explosive test remains 24-36 months under current NNSA planning, creating a significant barrier before the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Congressional oversight, state-level opposition in Nevada, and diplomatic signaling around arms control further shape trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities. Scheduled FY2026 budget and NDAA processes could influence testing infrastructure funding but have not altered the moratorium to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$768,767終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 statements directing nuclear weapons testing on an "equal basis" with rivals prompted initial market movement, though subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield underground detonations. The United States has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with stockpile stewardship assessments confirming reliability without explosive tests. Technical readiness for an underground explosive test remains 24-36 months under current NNSA planning, creating a significant barrier before the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Congressional oversight, state-level opposition in Nevada, and diplomatic signaling around arms control further shape trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities. Scheduled FY2026 budget and NDAA processes could influence testing infrastructure funding but have not altered the moratorium to date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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