Russia has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1990, despite de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, which removed legal barriers to resumption. The dominant recent driver remains President Putin's November 2025 order for defense officials to prepare proposals for tests, prompted by U.S. President Trump's signals of potentially ending America's test ban amid New START's February 2026 expiration—yet no concrete test preparations or announcements have followed. Ongoing Ukraine conflict escalations, including missile exercises and space-based nuclear threats, fuel rhetoric but lack verifiable steps toward detonation. Trader consensus implies low near-term odds absent U.S. testing or major diplomatic breakdowns, with eyes on arms control talks and NATO responses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,346,526 Vol.
2026/06/30
2026年6月30日
2%
2026年9月30日
7%
2026年12月31日
10%
$1,346,526 Vol.
2026年6月30日
$7,102 Vol.
2%
2026年9月30日
$2,057 Vol.
7%
2026年12月31日
$12,794 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1990, despite de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, which removed legal barriers to resumption. The dominant recent driver remains President Putin's November 2025 order for defense officials to prepare proposals for tests, prompted by U.S. President Trump's signals of potentially ending America's test ban amid New START's February 2026 expiration—yet no concrete test preparations or announcements have followed. Ongoing Ukraine conflict escalations, including missile exercises and space-based nuclear threats, fuel rhetoric but lack verifiable steps toward detonation. Trader consensus implies low near-term odds absent U.S. testing or major diplomatic breakdowns, with eyes on arms control talks and NATO responses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
音量
$1,346,526終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1990, despite de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, which removed legal barriers to resumption. The dominant recent driver remains President Putin's November 2025 order for defense officials to prepare proposals for tests, prompted by U.S. President Trump's signals of potentially ending America's test ban amid New START's February 2026 expiration—yet no concrete test preparations or announcements have followed. Ongoing Ukraine conflict escalations, including missile exercises and space-based nuclear threats, fuel rhetoric but lack verifiable steps toward detonation. Trader consensus implies low near-term odds absent U.S. testing or major diplomatic breakdowns, with eyes on arms control talks and NATO responses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,346,526終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1990, despite de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, which removed legal barriers to resumption. The dominant recent driver remains President Putin's November 2025 order for defense officials to prepare proposals for tests, prompted by U.S. President Trump's signals of potentially ending America's test ban amid New START's February 2026 expiration—yet no concrete test preparations or announcements have followed. Ongoing Ukraine conflict escalations, including missile exercises and space-based nuclear threats, fuel rhetoric but lack verifiable steps toward detonation. Trader consensus implies low near-term odds absent U.S. testing or major diplomatic breakdowns, with eyes on arms control talks and NATO responses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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