Recent official and ensemble forecasts from sources including ECMWF and GFS consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 25°C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by persistent high humidity and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling in the enclosed Sichuan basin. Variable cloud cover and light southerly winds could allow slightly greater overnight drops toward 23–24°C if clearer intervals develop, while heavier precipitation would trap heat and support readings closer to 26–27°C. This narrow range around typical late-August climatology explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 20°C-or-below and 25–27°C outcomes, with traders weighing model spread on boundary-layer moisture against the basin’s topographic heat-trapping effect. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution probabilities.