Recent forecast models for Chengdu show typical late-August subtropical monsoon conditions in the Sichuan Basin, with overnight lows expected near 24°C amid high humidity and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. Primary variables include cloud cover extent, timing of any thundershowers, and weak steering winds that can trap moisture or allow brief clearer intervals for greater heat loss. Trader consensus remains closely split because ensemble runs diverge on whether enhanced precipitation or partial clearing will push the minimum into the low 20s or hold it near the seasonal average of 23–25°C, with only modest downside risk for rarer cooler outcomes below 20°C. Updated guidance from regional meteorological agencies over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities.