Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月21日の東京の最高気温は?
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 8%
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
26%
31°C
32%
32°C
13%
33°C
8%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
4%
31°C 32%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 8%
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
26%
31°C
32%
32°C
13%
33°C
8%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a typical late-summer pattern dominated by the Pacific subtropical high, supporting daytime maxima near 31–32 °C in central Tokyo on 21 August, tempered by possible convective cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms that limit full solar heating. High humidity (70–85 %) and the urban heat-island effect add several tenths of a degree to observed readings, yet any increase in low-level moisture or weak frontal passage could cap the peak at 30 °C. With the resolution window only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest 00–12 UTC runs and satellite trends that show modest spread between 30–32 °C solutions; further model convergence or updated guidance on afternoon convection will likely narrow the distribution before the market settles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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