Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Chengdu of 19–21°C on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, light variable winds, and high humidity in the Sichuan basin that limits overnight radiative cooling under a subtropical climate regime. These conditions align with historical September baselines near 18–20°C and explain why market-implied odds cluster around mid-range outcomes while assigning notable probability to both cooler extremes (potentially from stronger advection or clearer skies) and warmer ones (from enhanced mixing or delayed cooling). Traders are weighing the latest ensemble runs and local observations against resolution criteria tied to official station readings, with additional model updates and real-time data expected to refine odds before the close of the trading window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月18日の成都の最低気温は？
9月18日の成都の最低気温は？
15℃以下 79%
25℃以上 78%
21℃ 49%
22°C 40%
新規
新規
2026/09/18
15℃以下
79%
16℃
39%
17℃
39%
18℃
38%
19℃
38%
20℃
30%
21℃
27%
22°C
40%
23℃
39%
24℃
38%
25℃以上
78%
15℃以下 79%
25℃以上 78%
21℃ 49%
22°C 40%
新規
新規
2026/09/18
15℃以下
$0 Vol.
79%
16℃
$0 Vol.
39%
17℃
$0 Vol.
39%
18℃
$0 Vol.
38%
19℃
$0 Vol.
38%
20℃
$0 Vol.
30%
21℃
$18 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23℃
$0 Vol.
39%
24℃
$0 Vol.
38%
25℃以上
$0 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Chengdu of 19–21°C on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, light variable winds, and high humidity in the Sichuan basin that limits overnight radiative cooling under a subtropical climate regime. These conditions align with historical September baselines near 18–20°C and explain why market-implied odds cluster around mid-range outcomes while assigning notable probability to both cooler extremes (potentially from stronger advection or clearer skies) and warmer ones (from enhanced mixing or delayed cooling). Traders are weighing the latest ensemble runs and local observations against resolution criteria tied to official station readings, with additional model updates and real-time data expected to refine odds before the close of the trading window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$18終了日
2026/09/18マーケット開始日
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Chengdu of 19–21°C on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, light variable winds, and high humidity in the Sichuan basin that limits overnight radiative cooling under a subtropical climate regime. These conditions align with historical September baselines near 18–20°C and explain why market-implied odds cluster around mid-range outcomes while assigning notable probability to both cooler extremes (potentially from stronger advection or clearer skies) and warmer ones (from enhanced mixing or delayed cooling). Traders are weighing the latest ensemble runs and local observations against resolution criteria tied to official station readings, with additional model updates and real-time data expected to refine odds before the close of the trading window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$18終了日
2026/09/18マーケット開始日
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Chengdu of 19–21°C on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, light variable winds, and high humidity in the Sichuan basin that limits overnight radiative cooling under a subtropical climate regime. These conditions align with historical September baselines near 18–20°C and explain why market-implied odds cluster around mid-range outcomes while assigning notable probability to both cooler extremes (potentially from stronger advection or clearer skies) and warmer ones (from enhanced mixing or delayed cooling). Traders are weighing the latest ensemble runs and local observations against resolution criteria tied to official station readings, with additional model updates and real-time data expected to refine odds before the close of the trading window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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