Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature reaching 11°C on April 29, driven by consensus forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those on AccuWeather and Weather.com, which project overnight and early morning lows near 11°C amid persistent moderate rain and northeast winds advecting cooler air masses. Current observations show morning temperatures around 11–12°C with light rain and dense cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, aligning with late-April climatological norms where average lows hover at 11°C. The 25.5% odds on 10°C reflect minor uncertainty from potential wind shifts or heavier cloud breaks, but high moisture levels favor stability; official station data will resolve by midnight, with hourly updates tracking any deviations through the diurnal cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Lowest temperature in Shanghai on April 29?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on April 29?
11°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$15,650 Vol.
$15,650 Vol.
2026/04/29
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
Yes
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
11°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$15,650 Vol.
$15,650 Vol.
2026/04/29
5°C or below
$930 Vol.
No
6°C
$374 Vol.
No
7°C
$363 Vol.
No
8°C
$1,601 Vol.
No
9°C
$1,411 Vol.
No
10°C
$6,759 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,852 Vol.
Yes
12°C
$377 Vol.
No
13°C
$68 Vol.
No
14°C
$375 Vol.
No
15°C or higher
$539 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature reaching 11°C on April 29, driven by consensus forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those on AccuWeather and Weather.com, which project overnight and early morning lows near 11°C amid persistent moderate rain and northeast winds advecting cooler air masses. Current observations show morning temperatures around 11–12°C with light rain and dense cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, aligning with late-April climatological norms where average lows hover at 11°C. The 25.5% odds on 10°C reflect minor uncertainty from potential wind shifts or heavier cloud breaks, but high moisture levels favor stability; official station data will resolve by midnight, with hourly updates tracking any deviations through the diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
音量
$15,650終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 12:15 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature reaching 11°C on April 29, driven by consensus forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those on AccuWeather and Weather.com, which project overnight and early morning lows near 11°C amid persistent moderate rain and northeast winds advecting cooler air masses. Current observations show morning temperatures around 11–12°C with light rain and dense cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, aligning with late-April climatological norms where average lows hover at 11°C. The 25.5% odds on 10°C reflect minor uncertainty from potential wind shifts or heavier cloud breaks, but high moisture levels favor stability; official station data will resolve by midnight, with hourly updates tracking any deviations through the diurnal cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$15,650終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 12:15 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature reaching 11°C on April 29, driven by consensus forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like those on AccuWeather and Weather.com, which project overnight and early morning lows near 11°C amid persistent moderate rain and northeast winds advecting cooler air masses. Current observations show morning temperatures around 11–12°C with light rain and dense cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, aligning with late-April climatological norms where average lows hover at 11°C. The 25.5% odds on 10°C reflect minor uncertainty from potential wind shifts or heavier cloud breaks, but high moisture levels favor stability; official station data will resolve by midnight, with hourly updates tracking any deviations through the diurnal cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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