**Forecast models from MetService and global ensembles point to overnight lows of 7–12°C in Wellington on September 21 under northerly flow and mostly clear conditions, yet trader positioning favors cooler outcomes.** Recent observations show minima around 7–8°C, with a notable 3.4°C reading earlier in the month, and some model runs highlight potential for a faster southerly shift that could drop temperatures further. This uncertainty around timing of any frontal passage and local wind effects elevates implied probabilities for 3°C or below (49.1%) and nearby thresholds like 5–7°C. Official guidance remains consistent with mild spring conditions above seasonal normals, though updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月21日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
9月21日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
5℃ 86%
6°C 86%
3°C以下 48.0%
7°C 44%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
3°C以下
48%
4℃
4%
5℃
86%
6°C
86%
7°C
44%
8°C
<1%
9℃
<1%
10°C
<1%
11℃
<1%
12℃
<1%
13℃以上
<1%
5℃ 86%
6°C 86%
3°C以下 48.0%
7°C 44%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
3°C以下
$0 Vol.
48%
4℃
$0 Vol.
4%
5℃
$0 Vol.
86%
6°C
$0 Vol.
86%
7°C
$0 Vol.
44%
8°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
9℃
$357 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
11℃
$37 Vol.
<1%
12℃
$37 Vol.
<1%
13℃以上
$37 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and global ensembles point to overnight lows of 7–12°C in Wellington on September 21 under northerly flow and mostly clear conditions, yet trader positioning favors cooler outcomes.** Recent observations show minima around 7–8°C, with a notable 3.4°C reading earlier in the month, and some model runs highlight potential for a faster southerly shift that could drop temperatures further. This uncertainty around timing of any frontal passage and local wind effects elevates implied probabilities for 3°C or below (49.1%) and nearby thresholds like 5–7°C. Official guidance remains consistent with mild spring conditions above seasonal normals, though updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$716終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and global ensembles point to overnight lows of 7–12°C in Wellington on September 21 under northerly flow and mostly clear conditions, yet trader positioning favors cooler outcomes.** Recent observations show minima around 7–8°C, with a notable 3.4°C reading earlier in the month, and some model runs highlight potential for a faster southerly shift that could drop temperatures further. This uncertainty around timing of any frontal passage and local wind effects elevates implied probabilities for 3°C or below (49.1%) and nearby thresholds like 5–7°C. Official guidance remains consistent with mild spring conditions above seasonal normals, though updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$716終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Forecast models from MetService and global ensembles point to overnight lows of 7–12°C in Wellington on September 21 under northerly flow and mostly clear conditions, yet trader positioning favors cooler outcomes.** Recent observations show minima around 7–8°C, with a notable 3.4°C reading earlier in the month, and some model runs highlight potential for a faster southerly shift that could drop temperatures further. This uncertainty around timing of any frontal passage and local wind effects elevates implied probabilities for 3°C or below (49.1%) and nearby thresholds like 5–7°C. Official guidance remains consistent with mild spring conditions above seasonal normals, though updated model runs tonight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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